1. Market Observation
U.S. President Trump recently announced plans to impose 15% to 20% comprehensive tariffs on most trading partners and an additional 35% tariff on Canadian imports starting August 1st, causing a sharp short-term fluctuation in the USD/CAD exchange rate. Although the EU is preparing retaliatory tariffs of over $100 billion and continuing negotiations, the market reaction remains relatively stable, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reaching new highs on Thursday. NVIDIA's market value first exceeded $4 trillion. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that the market is too complacent about tariff threats and predicted a 40%-50% probability of Federal Reserve rate hikes, significantly higher than the market's 20% expectation, based on factors including tariff policies, budget deficits, and potential inflationary pressures from global trade restructuring. There are significant internal disagreements at the Federal Reserve about the policy path. While Chair Powell hinted at a possible summer rate cut, officials still debate whether tariffs will drive inflation. St. Louis Fed President Mussallem believes the tariff impact is unclear, while San Francisco Fed President Daly maintains her expectation of two rate cuts this year. Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos points out that the Federal Reserve is facing a critical data verification period, with inflation readings in the coming months set to determine the policy direction. Meanwhile, investors are turning their attention to the second-quarter earnings season. Bloomberg expects S&P 500 company earnings growth of only 2%, but HSBC strategist Max Kettner believes pessimistic expectations are exaggerated, and a weakening dollar and improved earnings guidance may bring positive surprises.
Regarding Hong Kong's digital asset policy, HashKey Group Chief Analyst Jeffrey Ding stated that the "Hong Kong Digital Asset Development Policy Declaration 2.0" clearly incorporates digital assets into the global financial center strategy, promoting measures such as stablecoin licensing, RWA on-chain practices, and token asset tax exemptions. HashKey Group is actively participating in the transformation process, including collaborating with Bosera Fund to issue a tokenized money market fund ETF, achieving real RWA transactions; supporting compliance listings and custody architecture design for multiple stablecoins; and building an open, audit-friendly on-chain channel around HashKey Chain to promote the mapping and circulation of traditional financial assets.
Bitcoin maintained its strength after creating a new high of $112,000 on Wednesday and broke through $117,000 this morning. Trader Eugene noted that the price needs to break through $115,000 with volume to confirm an accelerating upward trend. On-chain data shows Bitcoin "accumulation addresses" holding 248,000 coins, a 71% increase in 30 days. Analyst Biraajmaan Tamuly, combining the MVRV indicator, predicts that large-scale profit-taking is unlikely before reaching $130,900. Glassnode detected a $4.3 billion actual market value growth, confirming continued capital inflow. 10x Research founder Markus Thielen emphasizes that Bitcoin ETFs have attracted over $15 billion in funds since April, driven by macro factors like Trump-pressured rate cuts. His trend model shows a 60% probability of a 20% further increase in the next two months, potentially reaching $133,000 in September. Milk Road co-founder Kyle Reidhead sees it potentially reaching $150,000 based on the cup and handle pattern. For Ethereum, whales and institutions bought $358 million worth of Ethereum yesterday, pushing the price above $2,800 and breaking $3,000 this morning. Ethereum ETF trading saw a net inflow of $383 million, the second-highest in history. Trader Eugene, referencing historical patterns, noted that previous breaks of $2,800 quickly rose to around $4,000. Analyst Rekt Capital also believes Ethereum has returned to the $2,200-$3,900 macro range and maintains an upward trend.
The Altcoin market saw a long-awaited rally driven by Bitcoin's new high, simultaneously providing sustained liquidity for exchanges announcing new listings. Hyperlane token HYPER rose over 455% within 24 hours of listing on Upbit, ranking first in trading volume and surpassing XRP by nearly 5 times. Binance's announcement of listing Infinity Ground and Cross perpetual contracts drove AIN up 105.9% and CROSS up 71%. Additionally, BANANAS on BNB Chain nearly doubled in 24 hours before narrowing to a 40% gain, MemeCore token M rose over 80% in 24 hours, Viction token VIC increased over 200% in a week, and the blue-chip NFT project Pudgy Penguins saw its trading volume surge, with prices rising 130% in two weeks. Pump.fun's announcement of acquiring Solana on-chain tool Kolscan caused its token market cap to briefly spike to $21 million before falling to $5.9 million, rising 1,816% in 24 hours. Notably, Pump.fun will conduct an ICO on July 12 at 22:00, with multiple on-chain traders taking leveraged short positions on PUMP.
2. Key Data (as of July 11, 12:00 HKT)
... [rest of the document continues similarly]Top 500 Market Cap Gainers Today: Omni Network (OMNI) up 195.50%, Hyperlane (HYPER) up 97.00%, CROSS (CROSS) up 70.72%, MemeCore (M) up 64.49%, Banana For Scale (BANANAS31) up 55.88%.
5. Hot News
Listed Company SharpLink Gaming Adds 12,648 ETH Today, Worth $35.31 Million
Grayscale Updates "Potential Asset List", Considering 31 Tokens
Cardano Foundation Total Assets Reach $659 Million, 76.7% in ADA, 15% in Bitcoin
BNB Completes 32nd Quarterly Burn, Worth Approximately $1.024 Billion
CryptoQuant: US Buying Pressure Boosts Bitcoin to New High, Bullish Market Sentiment May Not Be Over
Justin Sun Promises to Purchase TRUMP Token Worth $100 Million
Thumzup Includes ETH, XRP, DOGE and 6 Other Tokens in Bitcoin-Led Corporate Treasury
Upbit to List HYPER in Korean Won Market and BABY in BTC and USDT Markets
This article is supported by HashKey, HashKey Exchange is the largest licensed virtual asset exchange in Hong Kong and the most trusted crypto asset fiat gateway in Asia. Committed to defining new benchmarks for virtual asset exchanges in compliance, fund security, and platform protection.
