Against the backdrop of delayed interest rate cuts and geopolitical turmoil, almost all assets were trembling in the first half of 2025. However, Bitcoin led the entire crypto world in a beautiful counterattack, demonstrating strong resilience and growth potential. What key market momentum is brewing for the second half of the year?
At the beginning of this year, the external world generally expected the US economy to dive sharply, but currently, it appears to have achieved a smooth "soft landing", with the job market maintaining certain resilience. In May, non-farm employment increased by 139,000, unemployment rate was 4.2%, and wage growth was 3.9% year-on-year, indicating a stable labor market. Meanwhile, inflation data was below expectations, with core CPI rising 2.7% year-on-year in June, slightly lower than previous values, not yet significantly reflecting the impact of Trump's tariffs. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates in September rather than July.
[The translation continues in the same manner for the entire text, maintaining the specified translations for specific terms like Circle, USDC, etc.]In June, the institutionalization wave reached a new height, with global crypto ETF scale breaking through the milestone of 1.1 trillion dollars, with BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF alone attracting 4.9 billion dollars in net inflows in a single month. More notably, the degree of participation from traditional financial institutions is undergoing a qualitative change. For example, Goldman Sachs has started providing Bitcoin-backed loan services with CoinBase, a depth of participation far beyond Wall Street's tentative layout during the 2021 bull market. Meanwhile, the expected shift in Federal Reserve monetary policy has injected new variables into the market, with historical data indicating that Fed rate-cutting cycles are typically accompanied by significant Bitcoin appreciation.
In terms of regulation, the passage of the US 'GENIUS Act' and the establishment of Hong Kong's stablecoin licensing system mark that major financial centers have built a preliminary compliance framework for digital assets, and this policy certainty is attracting more traditional capital.
Additionally, the White House's digital asset policy advisor revealed that the US is working to build a strategic Bitcoin reserve infrastructure. The executive order issued by Trump in March did not mandate the Treasury Department to disclose the government's Bitcoin holdings, but we can expect proactive disclosure of related information in the second half of the year. The advisor also added that the US government is "highly inclined" to acquire Bitcoin in a budget-neutral manner. This means the government will fund Bitcoin purchases through internal fund restructuring or expense savings without increasing fiscal deficit or taxpayer burden.
In essence, looking back from mid-2025, the development trajectory of the crypto market has fundamentally differed from the early purely speculation-driven phase.
Standard Chartered Bank's digital asset research head Geoffrey Kendrick previously predicted a Bitcoin target price of $200,000 by the end of 2025. The dominant narrative behind this market trend has shifted from correlation with risk assets to fund flow-driven, with funds pouring in through multiple channels. Bitcoin is becoming an allocation tool for funds withdrawing from US assets, demonstrating that this rise is not just a price fluctuation but a reflection of global capital allocation and macroeconomic trends. In this sense, the second half of 2025 may well be the historical turning point where traditional financial systems and digital currency ecosystems achieve deep coupling.
Currently, BTC price remains in the high range of $100,000-$120,000. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, under multiple favorable conditions including a potential Fed rate cut, continued growth in corporate crypto adoption, and clarified regulatory policies, it is expected to usher in a new period of steady development.
