HashKey Trading Time: Bitcoin is attacking 110,000, Ethereum is aiming at key resistance, how to plan under the tariff cloud?

1. Market Observation

Although the United States has extended the tariff suspension period to August 1st, it again threatened to raise taxes on imported goods from major trading partners this week, causing continued uncertainty about the final tariff levels. A UBS report shows that the currently implemented tariffs are equivalent to a 1.5% GDP tax on US importers, with annual tariff revenue exceeding $300 billion, and its lagging inflationary effect is expected to be reflected in the July CPI data released in August. This delay stems from enterprise inventory buffers, slow intermediate goods price transmission, and the CPI bimonthly sampling mechanism. Historical experience shows that a 10% general tariff takes 2-3 months to be fully reflected in the price index. On the interest rate policy front, the Federal Reserve is facing a dilemma: the New York Fed survey shows that one-year inflation expectations have fallen to 3%, but there is significant pressure in sub-items such as medical expenses (9.3%) and college tuition (9.1%), while the labor market shows contradictory signals - unemployment concerns are easing, but re-employment difficulties are increasing.

As Hong Kong's Stablecoin Regulation is about to take effect in August, the market is full of expectations for the compliance dividends brought by a clear regulatory framework. HashKey Chief Analyst Jeffrey Ding pointed out that concept stocks like Golden Stream Investment have recently doubled, reflecting the market's strong expectations for compliance dividends after the August regulations take effect. The regulatory framework revealed by Deputy Financial Secretary Xu Zhengyu will cover core requirements such as anti-money laundering and reserve fund audits, and the first batch of licenses planned to be issued this year may reshape the industry's competitive landscape. However, Jeffrey Ding also warned that stablecoins still need to overcome three obstacles to disrupt the traditional payment system: the interest distribution mechanism between financial institutions and tech companies, cross-border regulatory coordination challenges, and systemic risk stress tests under extreme market conditions.

The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a critical stage of technical breakthrough and cycle verification. Both bulls and bears are fiercely battling around $110,000. Analyst 0xENAS pointed out that if the price fails to break through this resistance level, it may quickly fall back to $100,000; conversely, it may be able to impact $120,000. A more optimistic prediction comes from analyst TedPillows, who, combining the trend of M2 money supply, believes that Bitcoin may rise to the $120,000 to $125,000 range in the next stage. Looking at a longer time cycle, analyst Rekt Capital calculates based on historical halving cycles that the peak of this bull market may occur between mid-September and mid-October 2025, which coincides with analyst Jelle's trading plan, who has begun to gradually reduce positions and plans to completely exit the market before October 2025. Ali states that Bitcoin has solid support around $106,360.

Regarding Ethereum, analyst Open4profit says that after ETH stands above $2,600, it is approaching the $2,630 triangular resistance level, and Open4profit suggests paying attention to volume changes to confirm the trend. Meanwhile, the market's optimistic sentiment about Ethereum has also transmitted to stocks holding related tokens, with GameSquare's stock price surging 58.76% in a single day, and associated listed companies like Sharplink (+28.57%) and Bit Digital (+7.47%) also strengthening simultaneously.

In the Altcoin market, Vertex announced the migration of its DEX on Arbitrum to the Ink network and gradually phasing out its native token VRTX, causing VRTX to plummet 60% in 24 hours. Although the MEME token rivalry between Solana ecosystem Letsbonk and Pump.fun remains heated, the related token LetsBONK has experienced over 30% pullback, and the market temporarily lacks sustainable new narratives. Notably, the $Lore token's market cap has broken through $2 million through retweets and comments on the X platform.

This article is supported by HashKey, HashKey Exchange is the largest licensed virtual asset exchange in Hong Kong and the most trusted crypto asset fiat gateway in Asia. Committed to defining new benchmarks for virtual asset exchanges in terms of compliance, fund safety, and platform protection.