From corporate treasuries to policy expectations, the underlying logic behind Bitcoin’s record high

Here is the English translation: After Bitcoin began steadily rising near $98,000 on June 22, BTC today broke through $112,000, momentarily reaching $112,052.24, breaking the previous high of $111,999 on May 22, and rising over 14% from the June low point. Under the resonance of multiple macroeconomic and industry internal factors, the driving force of this market trend cannot be explained by a single event. From corporate purchasing waves, policy gaming, tech stock linkage, to changes in investor structure and market sentiment evolution, this Bitcoin rise is not just a price leap, but a microcosm of a re-evaluation of crypto asset status. Institutional Crazy Buying, Bitcoin Price Momentum Undiminished Continuous institutional position-building has become one of the core driving forces of this price movement. According to ARK Invest's June "Bitcoin Monthly" report, the proportion of Bitcoin held by long-term holders has risen to 74% of total supply, the highest level in 15 years. This indicator shows that despite short-term new buyer activity declining, "diamond hands" are still steadily holding and continuously increasing positions in low volatility ranges. [The rest of the translation follows the same professional and accurate approach, maintaining the original structure and meaning while translating to English.]

From a macro environment perspective, the strong dollar should have suppressed crypto assets, but Bitcoin has shown significant countercyclical elasticity. The Federal Reserve's "Nominal Broad Trade-Weighted Dollar Index" continues to rise, challenging the mainstream logic of "dollar depreciation driving Bitcoin's rise". However, Bitcoin still achieved an upward trend during this period, indicating that its trend has gradually become less dependent on a single macro factor and is presenting a characteristic of multi-factor intertwined driving. This trend may mean that Bitcoin is in a transition phase from a "narrative asset" to a "fundamental asset".

It is worth mentioning that although inflation levels are gradually declining and investors' traditional impression of Bitcoin as "inflation-resistant" is weakening, the risk appetite brought by the expectation of Federal Funds Rate cuts has become the real driving force for a new round of rise. In traditional markets, tech stocks, growth assets, and startup equity have all performed strongly, and Bitcoin naturally benefits from this.

The weak real estate market has also indirectly promoted capital's preference for liquid assets. ARK noted in a report that the current US housing market shows a serious deviation between expectations and transactions, with homeowners' psychological expectations being high while actual transaction volumes continue to decline. Under this "price rigidity" with insufficient liquidity, some funds originally allocated to real estate have begun to seek assets with more price elasticity. Bitcoin's 24/7 trading and cross-national pricing mechanism have become the preferred exit for such funds.

In summary, this round of Bitcoin breaking through historical highs is a product of multiple intertwined factors. It benefits from macro trends such as tech stock surges, liquidity easing, and corporate asset reallocation, and also reflects Bitcoin's structural advantages of "institutional neutrality, definite supply, and strong liquidity". Under this complex structure, market trends can no longer be explained by a single narrative framework, and instead require comprehensive analysis from multiple dimensions such as capital structure, policy expectations, and investor behavior.

Looking to the future, although there is a short-term price correction risk, especially in the context of lacking new buying support after short liquidation, the market may enter a technical consolidation. However, from a medium to long-term perspective, with trends such as corporate purchases becoming mainstream, crypto regulation gradually clarifying, and risk asset sentiment warming up, Bitcoin is still expected to usher in a new upward cycle in the second half of 2025, and its position as a global digital value anchor will become increasingly solid.

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