Bitcoin hit $112,100 intraday on the 9th; just as it was celebrating a new high, analysts warned it could "drop back to $95,000" at any moment. Zooming out, three macro pressures are intensifying: US debt explosion, housing market demand cooling, and Federal Reserve policy and personnel variables, making risk assets hard to stay unaffected.
Real Estate Brewing Disaster
US new home inventory is approaching a 10-month high point. Ivory Hill Wealth founder Kurt S. Altrichter believes this is a common sight before a recession. Residential sales in May 2025 decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, hitting a low since 2009. The housing market cooling will compress middle-class consumption and employment, and the negative effects will ultimately return to risk assets.
If this historical pattern linking housing supply surplus with economic recession holds true, it could potentially pressure risk assets like Bitcoin in a short time.
If Bitcoin experiences a short-term correction, it might return to a bottom around $95,000-$96,000.
Bitcoin Expectations Under Debt Wall
On the same day, US federal debt surged by $367 billion in a single day, reaching $36.6 trillion, due to Trump signing the "One Big Beautiful Bill" to relax debt limits. Funds flowed into short-term government bonds, and risk assets were left cold. Strike CEO Jack Mallers directly stated:
"The Treasury can only ultimately expand the monetary base (QE), and dollar depreciation will support Bitcoin's long-term bullish trend."
Interestingly, right after Mallers made this statement, Bitcoin soon reached a new historical high, suggesting this view might have been quickly "priced in" by the market, indicating that long-term bullish factors for Bitcoin may have already been reflected, and investors might need to prepare for a short-term macroeconomic adjustment.
Fed Variables Affecting Liquidity
Some market participants are currently monitoring Federal Reserve dynamics, as this could be the biggest market variable recently. The Fed's interest rate remains at 4.25%–4.50%, with the market betting on two potential rate cuts in the second half of 2025. If rates remain high, liquidity contraction will suppress Bitcoin; conversely, an early dovish turn could drive fund inflows. Rumors that Trump might replace Chair Powell make the outlook even more uncertain. Currently, Bitcoin's correlation with S&P 500 is 0.68, and with the US dollar is −0.29, indicating liquidity remains the main axis.
The interweaving of US debt, housing market cold winds, and interest rate trends are expected to keep Bitcoin oscillating between $112K and $95K. What investors need most is risk management, not position prediction: control leverage, maintain sufficient cash, set stop-loss points. If the $95K retest becomes reality, disciplined position management can preserve chips for re-entry.
