In the past week, the crypto market was at the intersection of technical consolidation and macro gaming. On one hand, the Federal Reserve's policy remains unclear, with short-term rate cut expectations fluctuating; on the other hand, stablecoin legislation advancement and continuous ETH ETF fund inflows have injected moderate confidence into the market. Overall, despite lacking clear upward momentum, the market structure is trending towards stability.
I. BTC Oscillating at High Levels, On-Chain Structure Stable
Bitcoin maintained its high-level oscillation in the past few days, with prices repeatedly testing the $108,000 to $110,000 range. As of July 7, Bitcoin is reported at $109,500, with a slight weekly increase of around 2%, still within the technical consolidation interval.
On-chain data shows that large wallet addresses continue to accumulate, and BTC balances on exchanges are continuously declining, with no panic selling observed in the market. MicroStrategy's announcement of acquiring 4,900 BTC in late June further boosted medium to long-term investor confidence.
Ethereum (ETH) showed a slightly stronger trend, benefiting from ETF inflows and improved on-chain indicators, briefly rising to $2,550. The cumulative holding addresses for ETH reached 22.74 million, with over 6 million added in June alone. The Liquid Staking scale exceeded 35.56 million, both setting new historical highs. Overall, mainstream cryptocurrency funds have not withdrawn, and some investors are beginning to layout medium-term opportunities.
II. Macro and Policy Environment Easing, Market Risk Appetite Recovering
US June non-farm employment added 147,000, higher than the expected 110,000. This result alleviates market concerns about weakening labor market and reduces the possibility of the Federal Reserve taking aggressive rate cuts in the short term.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell maintains a "data-driven" policy stance, without providing a clear rate cut timeline. The market currently generally expects September or November as potential policy turning points. Meanwhile, the US Treasury Secretary stated that new trade agreements are expected to be reached with multiple countries before the tariff expiration on "Liberation Day" on July 9.
In terms of regulation, the GENIUS stablecoin bill is progressing between the Senate and House. The bill focuses on issuance mechanisms, reserve audits, KYC compliance, and is seen as an important node in the US push for stablecoin legalization. Trump's public call for quick passage of a "clean version" also reflects a positive change in the political attitude towards the crypto industry.
III. Platform Safety and Asset Innovation Proceed, US Stock Tokenization Concept Heating Up
Although prices remain resilient, industry safety issues still require vigilance. According to SlowMist data, over 120 security incidents occurred in the Ethereum ecosystem in the first half of 2025, mainly concentrated in smart contract defects and permission setting errors. Some platforms have introduced on-chain insurance and risk control contracts to enhance risk resistance.
Meanwhile, asset innovation is also rapidly advancing, with "US stock tokenization" trading recently attracting industry attention. Robinhood announced support for tokenized contract trading of companies like OpenAI and SpaceX, but clearly stated that these assets are not actual equity, but rather on-chain derivative contracts anchored to actual stock market value. Although OpenAI has publicly denied authorized cooperation with Robinhood, market interest in such products remains undiminished.
While these tokenized stocks involve legal and regulatory controversies, they also reveal the accelerating trend of traditional and crypto finance integration. In the future, if such financial instruments can be improved within a compliant framework, it may open more digital investment channels for retail and institutional investors.
On another note, Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated that ETH spot ETF fund inflows in the second half of 2025 are expected to significantly accelerate. June saw net inflows of $1.17 billion, indicating that traditional institutions' confidence in the ETH ecosystem is gradually being established.
4E Summary: Cautious Strategy, Positive Structure
The current market is in a stage combining high-level oscillation and news sensitivity. Despite lacking explosive positive news, stable on-chain data, mainstream funds not showing outflows, and continuous policy promotion are accumulating confidence for a medium-term market trend.
BTC and ETH demonstrated relative resilience in the past week, with mainstream platforms and on-chain protocols continuously optimizing safety mechanisms. Multiple progresses in stablecoin legislation, US stock tokenization innovation, Ethereum ETF, and tax reforms are reshaping the entire crypto financial system's structure.
About 4E: As an official partner of the Argentine national team, the 4E platform supports assets such as cryptocurrencies, gold, US stocks, indices, and forex, with one-stop USDT trading. Recently, they launched a new user registration activity offering 88U, providing trading benefits for investors. Through 4E, investors can follow market dynamics, flexibly adjust strategies, and seize every potential opportunity.
