Bitcoin volatility drops to a two-year low. Will the entry of traditional finance make BTC prices more stable?

Over the past two months, BTC price has been fluctuating in a large range, with the BTC volatility index (DVOL) dropping to a two-year low, and on-chain transaction volume declining. Traditional financial funds from BTC reserve companies and BTC ETFs continue to increase, gradually changing the BTC trading market. Will the annual BTC appreciation potentially become smaller, making it a more attractive retirement asset? Deribit's BTC volatility index (DVOL) has dropped to 38.97, the lowest since October 2023, tracking the expected 30-day annualized volatility rate, indicating a reduction in BTC's investment nature. Implied volatility typically means market participants are uncertain about price trends, with traders willing to pay more to protect existing positions or speculate on potential price movements. Lower readings suggest market observers expect prices to remain stable. According to The Block's data, the monthly transaction volume on the BTC network decreased by 15% in June compared to May, reaching the lowest monthly transaction volume since October 2023. Since BTC's debut in 2009, traders have been attracted to this primitive cryptocurrency as a way to quickly earn money through arbitrage and directional trading. However, with decreasing volatility, many find fewer profit opportunities. BTC appreciated over 100% in the first two years, with an expected 17% increase in 2025. Over the past two months, BTC's trading price has mostly fluctuated between $93,000 and $111,000, one of the narrowest ranges in recent years. The stability of BTC coincides with the growing influence of institutional investors. Whether through corporate funds like MicroStrategy or US BTC ETFs, traditional financial funds are increasingly changing the BTC trading market. GSR crypto investment company's research analyst Michael Longoria stated that this shift helps suppress extreme market conditions and adds a layer of price discipline. Arca's Chief Investment Officer Jeff Dorman believes BTC's annual appreciation might become smaller, turning into a boring stock, but potentially becoming a more attractive retirement asset. (Why is BTC not rising? Whales have sold 500,000 BTC in a year, and BTC's annual appreciation will gradually shrink) Risk Warning: Crypto investment carries high risks, with potentially volatile prices that may result in total capital loss. Please carefully assess the risks. FTX creditor representative Sunil noted today that the FTX Recovery Trust will suspend compensation payments to creditors in 49 countries due to "local legal uncertainties". While Chinese claimants represent only 5% of claim numbers, they account for 82% of the total amount, becoming the largest victims of this freeze policy.

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FTX Suspends Claims in 49 Countries: Regulatory Restrictions as Main Reason

According to documents submitted by FTX to the Delaware Bankruptcy Court, FTX Recovery Trust announced the suspension of fund distribution to 49 "restricted" jurisdictions, including China, Nigeria, Russia, and Ukraine, due to potential local laws prohibiting crypto transactions or not allowing fund distribution through third-party distributors.

These claims will be temporarily marked as "Disputed Claims" and may only be processed once legal issues are clarified.

(FTX's Second Wave of Repayment Has Arrived, How to Withdraw? What Are the Precautions?)

Detailed Explanation of FTX's Compensation Process for Restricted Countries

According to the document provided by Sunil, FTX will conduct a legal review for these 49 countries and send a "Restricted Jurisdiction Notice" to each creditor in restricted areas, detailing the reasons for restriction and providing at least a 45-day objection deadline.

Creditors must submit a written statement to object and accept U.S. court jurisdiction and investigation. If no objection is made within the deadline or the objection fails, the related claim will be considered automatically waived.

Ultimately, the success of objections depends on the U.S. court's determination, and users may still be unable to receive distribution.

China Accounts for 82% of Affected Funds, Becoming the Largest Victim

Although Chinese users represent only 5% of applicants in the 49 restricted countries, they account for 82% of affected funds. Sunil stated that the trust will conduct compliance analysis based on each country's legal status, distributing funds where possible and marking others as "disputed claims" until their validity is confirmed.

Facing this sudden and unilateral freezing decision, many Chinese users are fighting back. User @zhetengji stated that he has contacted a New York lawyer and is preparing to object. He questioned FTX's logic:

While mainland China prohibits crypto transactions, the law allows individuals to hold cryptocurrencies. Even with foreign exchange restrictions, Chinese residents can legally hold USD assets abroad. So why not support wire transfer settlements?

Identity Risks for Crypto Investors: Work Visa Becoming a New Lifeline?

Market observer @_FORAB suggested a deeper reminder: "If planning to invest large amounts in the crypto long-term, it's best to apply for a work visa in a developed country."

FTX's blockade not only affects mainland China but also Macau, making it difficult for many users to appeal through legal channels. In contrast, those with residency rights in Japan, South Korea, or European countries can more easily pursue international litigation or participate in compensation.

Legal Uncertainty, Indefinite Claims: Are Affected Creditors Left to Fate?

Currently, before the court clarifies the feasibility of these disputed claims, users can only wait and cannot retrieve any funds. This controversy highlights the compliance challenges of crypto assets under global judicial fragmentation, and beyond the decentralization ideal, "judicial accessibility" may be gradually becoming a new indicator of "safety" in the crypto community.