Deng Tong, Jinse Finance
After the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the Bitcoin spot ETF on January 10, 2024, and trading began on January 11, 2024, various ETF applications have emerged, including both mainstream and other cryptocurrencies. This article will review which cryptocurrency ETFs have been submitted this year, their probability of approval, and their potential impact on the crypto market.
I. Cryptocurrency ETFs Submitted This Year
SOL, 99%
On June 28, REX Shares announced on X platform that the Solana staking ETF "REX-OspreySOL+StakingETF" is coming soon, reportedly tracking Solana's performance while generating income through on-chain staking. It is claimed to be the first staking cryptocurrency ETF in the United States. Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas disclosed on X platform that the SEC has no further comments, suggesting they are ready to launch.
Previously, multiple institutions submitted SOL spot ETF applications by the end of 2024 or early 2025. Sosovalue analyst noted that the SEC accepted Grayscale Solana Trust's SOL spot ETF 19b-4 form on February 12, with the latest approval date potentially set for October 10, 2025, based on the extreme approval case of the Bitcoin spot ETF.
On June 26, investment management company Invesco Ltd and crypto-focused Galaxy Digital LP joined the Solana ETF competition. The subsidiaries of both companies submitted a registration statement to the SEC, applying for the "Invesco Galaxy Solana ETF". If approved, the fund will trade on Cboe BZX with the stock code "QSOL". Invesco Capital Management LLC will be the sponsor, Bank of New York Mellon will manage it, and Galaxy will be responsible for token acquisition. Coinbase Custody Trust Company, LLC will serve as the custodian for SOL. The SEC requested Solana ETF issuers to update their S-1 files earlier this month, indicating approval may be imminent.
Polymarket platform predicts a 99% probability of approval this year.
XRP, 85%
On April 30, ProShares Trust's 4 crypto futures XRP ETFs registered with the SEC on January 17, 2025, became effective.
On April 26, the world's first spot ETF linked to XRP was issued by Hashdex and managed by Genial Investimentos, starting trading on the Brazilian B3 stock exchange on April 25. The ETF code is XRPH11, tracking the Nasdaq XRP reference price index. Hashdex stated that the ETF will allocate at least 95% of its net assets to XRP.
On June 18, Purpose Investments Inc.'s Purpose XRP ETF began trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange with the code XRPP, offering direct exposure to spot XRP. This is the first spot XRP ETF in North America.
On June 18, crypto asset management company 3iQ launched the 3iQ XRP ETF (XRPQ) on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX), with a 0% management fee rate in the first six months. Investors can invest through registered accounts in Canada, and the TSX listing will enable global qualified investors to participate, subject to local regulations.
Additionally, Grayscale, Bitwise, 21Shares, WisdomTree, and Canary Capital have also submitted XRP spot ETF applications. Nate Geraci, CEO of ETF Store, stated on social media that an XRP spot ETF is imminent. "With Ripple withdrawing its lawsuit against the SEC, it has cleared the path for an XRP spot ETF... and also paved the way for BlackRock's involvement."
Polymarket platform predicts an 85% probability of approval this year.
BNB, Probability Unclear
On April 2, VanEck registered a BNB ETF in Delaware. On May 5, VanEck submitted the S-1 file for the BNB ETF.
Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted that many criticize VanEck's BNB ETF application. However, knowing CZ's statements about providing advice to multiple governments on establishing crypto reserves and suggesting including BNB in reserves might be why Jan VanEck took action. Again, this is just a hypothetical idea, but the logic is clear.
SUI, 60%
On May 27, 21Shares applied to list the 21Shares SUI ETF on Nasdaq, tracking the spot price of Sui's native token SUI. The ETF aims to calculate net asset value daily using the CF Benchmarks SUI-USD reference price, without leverage or derivatives, holding only spot SUI, custodied by BitGo and Coinbase Custody. This trust product will allow institutions to invest in SUI through traditional brokerage accounts, providing a more transparent and compliant access path for investors.
On June 11, Nasdaq submitted an application to the SEC to list the 21Shares SUI ETF, a spot ETF based on the SUI token. The 19b-4 file has been officially published to the SEC's public registration system, marking the formal start of the review process. If listed in the United States, it will further expand investor accessibility to this innovative Layer 1 ecosystem known for excellent performance and utility. 21Shares has already listed a Sui ETP on Euronext in Paris and Amsterdam, with significant fund inflows this year.
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart predicts a 60% probability of approval this year.
SEI, Probability Unclear
On April 30, Canary Capital submitted an S-1 registration statement to the SEC, planning to manage a product that could become the first spot SEI ETF in the United States, including a staking element. The proposed fund aims to provide investors direct exposure to the Sei network's native cryptocurrency SEI price, with assets custodied by BitGo and Coinbase. The trust fund plans to stake part of its assets through one or more infrastructure providers, potentially generating additional returns for investors. Additionally, the fund will handle share creation and redemption in cash, similar to existing spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in the United States.
PENGU, 50%
On June 26, Cboe BZX Exchange submitted a 19b-4 application file to the SEC for the Canary PENGU ETF.
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart predicts a 50% probability of approval for the PENGU ETF this year.
LTC, 82%
Grayscale and Canary Capital submitted LTC ETF applications. Both institutions submitted their respective 19b-4 files on January 16 and January 24, 2025, and both have been accepted by the SEC.
On May 6, the SEC postponed its decision on Canary's spot Litecoin ETF.
Polymarket platform predicts an 82% probability of LTC ETF approval this year.
DOT, 90%
On March 18, Nasdaq submitted the 19b-4 form for 21 Shares' Polkadot ETF application to the SEC.
On May 15, the SEC delayed its decision on the 21Shares spot Polkadot ETF.
On June 24, the SEC postponed the review of the 21Shares spot Polkadot ETF.
The SEC has extended the review period for the 21Shares Polkadot Trust ETF listing application to July 26, 2025.
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart predicts a 90% probability of DOT ETF approval this year.
AVAX, 90%
On March 15, VanEck submitted its S-1 file for the Avalanche ETF to the SEC.
On March 28, Nasdaq submitted the Grayscale Avalanche ETF application to the SEC.
On April 23, the SEC confirmed VanEck's submitted spot Avalanche ETF.
On June 13, the SEC postponed the resolution on VanEck's spot Avalanche ETF.
Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, stated on X platform that with Nasdaq submitting the 19b-4 form application for the Grayscale Avalanche ETF, the altcoin ETFs submitted to the SEC now cover 11 cryptocurrencies: XRP, SOL, DOGE, ADA, AVAX, SUI, HBAR, DOT, LTC, APT, and AXL.
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart predicts a 90% probability of AVAX ETF approval this year.
DOGE, 75%
On February 14, the SEC confirmed accepting Grayscale and NYSE's 19b-4 application to establish a DOGE ETF.
On March 12, the SEC announced a postponement of the Grayscale spot DOGE ETF resolution.
On April 10, 21Shares submitted an application to the SEC, planning to launch a spot Dogecoin ETF.
On April 29, Nasdaq submitted the 19b-4 form for 21Shares' DOGE ETF application to the SEC.
On April 30, SEC decided to postpone the Bitwise spot DOGE ETF application until June 15, 2025.
On June 26, Bitwise Asset Management submitted a revised S-1 file for the DOGE ETF to SEC, for the first time allowing "in-kind" creation and redemption, which keeps the ETF's operating model consistent with the spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs already approved by SEC.
Polymarket platform predicts the LTC ETF has a 75% probability of passing this year.
ADA, 90%
In February this year, Grayscale submitted the world's first spot ADA ETF application to SEC.
On March 12, SEC postponed the approval of Grayscale's spot ADA ETF.
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart released a prediction that the ADA ETF has a 90% probability of passing this year.
HBAR, 90%
On November 13, 2024, Canary submitted the HBAR ETF application.
On February 22, Canary submitted a revised S-1 file for its HBAR ETF to the US SEC.
On June 11, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) postponed the decision on the Hedera ETF application submitted by Canary Capital.
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart predicts the HBAR ETF has a 90% probability of passing this year.
TRX ETF, probability unknown
In April 2025, Canary Capital Group officially submitted a spot TRX ETF application to SEC.
On May 24, Justin Sun revealed in an interview after the Trump crypto dinner that the application has been approved by SEC, marking a significant breakthrough in TRON's compliance process. The application was submitted by the Chicago Exchange and is currently in the approval process.
NEAR, probability unknown
On April 25, Bitwise registered the NEAR ETF in Delaware.
On May 6, Bitwise's registration statement showed that the ETF will track the price movement of NEAR tokens through traditional brokers and deduct fees. Bitwise designated Coinbase Custody as the custodian for the Bitwise NEAR ETF. The management fee, stock code, and listing exchange for the Bitwise NEAR ETF are yet to be determined.
TRUMP, probability unknown
On January 21, Rex applied to launch the TRUMP ETF.
APT, probability unknown
On February 25, Bitwise filed documents for the Aptos ETF trust in Delaware, and on March 5, submitted the corresponding S-1 file to SEC.
On June 26, Bitwise submitted a revised S-1 form to the US SEC for the spot DOGE and Aptos ETF.
AXL, probability unknown
On March 6, Canary Capital submitted the S-1 application file for its AXL ETF.
II. Will Many Altcoin ETF Applications Bring a "Altcoin Season"?
Cryptocurrency ETF applications often trigger investor expectations of their approval, and once the market believes a certain cryptocurrency ETF might pass, investors tend to buy that cryptocurrency, thereby driving up the market.
After an ETF is approved, it will also attract more investors, thereby helping to increase the trading volume of the entire crypto market and enhance liquidity.
Currently, there are voices suggesting that SEC's upcoming approval of some cryptocurrency ETFs will kick off an "Altcoin ETF Summer".
Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted: "Get ready for a potential Altcoin ETF Summer, with Solana likely leading the trend."
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe stated that the altcoin market has not actually started yet: "The largest bull market in crypto history is about to come, as market expansion after such a long bear market will exceed any previous cycle."
