Source: Cryptoslate
Translated by: Blockchain Knight
According to a joint report released on June 26, risk modeling company Gauntlet, analytics provider RWA.xyz, and RedStone predict that the on-chain RWA market size could reach up to $30 trillion by 2034.
The research shows that the scale of tokenized real-world assets, excluding stablecoins, has grown from approximately $5 billion in 2022 to over $24 billion in June 2025, with an annual growth rate of 85%, making it the fastest-growing sector in the Crypto field after dollar-pegged tokens.
According to the RWA.xyz dashboard embedded in the research report, private credit dominates the market with an outstanding scale of $14 billion, while tokenized U.S. Treasury instruments contribute about $7.5 billion.
The report modeled various adoption curves and concluded that if it can capture 10% to 30% of global securities and alternative assets between 2030 and 2034, the on-chain market size would be closer to the range of $16 trillion to $30 trillion.
The report points out that BlackRock, JPMorgan, Franklin Templeton, and Apollo are now issuing large-scale funds on public blockchains, indicating that tokenization has developed from a proof-of-concept stage to actual deployment in less than two years.
On Morpho and Kamino platforms, yield-bearing Treasury tokens, redeemable share classes, and leveraged private credit cycles demonstrate how DeFi infrastructure can create new distribution channels and liquidity venues for traditionally illiquid financial instruments.
RedStone believes that precise pricing depends on an oracle architecture that integrates asset net value snapshots, regulatory certification, and liquidity discounts, which differs from the real-time spot data sources commonly used in DeFi.
Gauntlet's model indicates that once tokenized lending reaches 5% of the global $30 trillion market, on-chain private credit could exceed $250 billion.
In comparison, if asset management companies allocate 2% of short-term funds to blockchain infrastructure, the scale of Treasury note tokens could exceed $1 trillion.
The report authors predict that programmable compliance layers (such as Securitize's sTokens) and increasing regulatory clarity in the U.S., Europe, and Asia will enable pension funds and insurance companies to directly allocate tokenized products, expanding the reachable customer base from native Crypto capital to a broader range.
RedStone plans to update the market size tracker quarterly and add real-time oracle indicators for the on-chain RWA index. Meanwhile, Gauntlet will release risk parameter adjustments for leveraged vaults related to private credit pools.
The alliance will hold a further briefing at the RWA Summit in Cannes on July 1, where they will disclose detailed capital inflow data and the methodology behind their $30 trillion ceiling model.
The report notes that the current $24 billion scale represents only about 0.006% of the traditional asset size of $400 trillion, but the report believes that institutional issuance speed and programmable settlement advantages are sufficient to justify the $30 trillion scenario within the next nine years.
