The biggest cruelty in the market is not the decline, but discovering after the fall that you didn't dare to get in. The evening #PPI data directly scared the market to tears. PPI represents enterprise production costs, which this time was 3.3% year-on-year, higher than expected, meaning the Federal Reserve might delay interest rate cuts.
Communication + Q: 3806326575 Originally, everyone was betting on a September rate cut, but now the probability has sharply dropped, with risk assets across the board pulling back.
But I don't think it's a bad thing - this is an opportunity for the market to reverse.
Although PPI was scary, the rate cut expectation hasn't been broken, but rather become more clear. Bason has been continuously calling for a 50 basis point cut in September, and Trump has also suggested that the Federal Reserve chairman might be replaced early. CME directly removed the "no rate cut in September" option, and Polymarket predicts over 8% probability of a 50 basis point cut. This means the September FOMC might become a super fuel for market sentiment, with US stocks and crypto markets still leaning bullish.
The market structure has really changed
The current market is the most "structured" in crypto history.
Previously, bull markets were BTC leading mainstream, mainstream leading altcoins, with a smooth rhythm. But this time? It's completely become winners eat meat, losers eat dirt:
- BTC, BNB quietly creating new highs
- Everyone keeps shouting about ETH hitting ATH, but it's still not going up
- Most mainstream and altcoins are still stuck in place
Just a few examples:
- #DOGE previous high 0.73, now 0.2
- #AVAX previous high 145, now 25
- #ADA previous high 3, now 1
Coins that can keep up with BTC's rhythm can be counted on one hand: ETH, BNB, XRP, TRX, SOL, LINK, HBAR, XLM, TON, AAVE.
Others are either still a multiple away from their previous high, or need to rise 10 times to get back. The playbook for this bull market has changed - the script of stubbornly waiting for a comeback is gone, and you must play with leaders, ETF-backed, crypto treasury, and coins with project resources.
If the coins in your hand haven't had a decent piece of news in the past six months when crypto was so hot, the team has likely gone idle. Such projects must be quickly cut off. Last night saw a crypto stock carnival - Bullish opened with a 200% surge, market cap soaring past $15 billion, with a trend exactly like Circle.
Communication + Q: 3806326575
Don't forget, this is the "illegitimate child" of EOS Foundation's Block.one, long since distanced from EOS. Now Cathie Wood and Peter Thiel have also bet on it, seemingly becoming the new darling of the crypto world, while EOS has become the abandoned "old love".
On the altcoin side, ETH ecosystem still dominates, with infrastructure, DeFi, L2 sectors like #GTC, $SKL, #EIGEN, #ARB, $ZK performing not badly, but still several times away from previous highs. I personally will only keep one-tenth for such altcoins, with the core still heavily positioned in leaders. If you find leader gains insufficient, go for crypto stocks - high volatility, high potential returns, without the overnight liquidation risk like Yue.
This bull market doesn't lack highlights, what it lacks is the ability to see the rhythm. Don't fantasize that all coins will follow BTC - being right on the correct coin is 100 times more important than stubbornly holding onto the wrong one.
That's all for now! If you're still unclear in the crypto world, why not plan with me, join the VX + Q group without barriers, get market analysis, altcoin opportunities, and individual coin operations first-hand... waiting for you, otherwise you might again be the one standing on the opposite shore of the next market wave. V: c13298103401 or Q: 3806326575
