Author: Biteye Core Contributor viee
Editor: Biteye Core Contributor Denise
Original Title: Will ETH Hit $10,000 This Year? Six Methods to Analyze the Possibility
ETH has rebounded from its April low point and currently stands above $4,500. If 2024 is the beginning of the bull market triggered by the Bitcoin ETF, then 2025 will likely be the year for ETH to take the stage. This article uses 6 valuation methods to analyze whether ETH can break through the $10,000 mark!
01, ETH/BTC Ratio
First, we compare ETH and BTC for relative valuation.
The ETH/BTC ratio has been quite stable in the long term, but the current ratio is only 0.0372, which is in the lower half of the past 5 years, suggesting that ETH might be "undervalued".
Based on the 5-year average ETH/BTC ratio of 0.0518, assuming BTC remains around $120,000, the corresponding ETH price would be $6,214. If referring to the 0.06-0.08 ETH/BTC ratio from the previous bull market, with BTC still around $120,000, the corresponding ETH price would be $7,200-$9,600.
02, ETH ETF and Institutional Holdings
With the surge in ETH price, off-market funds are pouring into the Ethereum ETF. Many overlook the actual impact of the Ethereum ETF and institutional buying, which is not just positive sentiment but also a massive buying pressure.
According to @SoSovalueCrypto data, the Ethereum spot ETF reached a new historical high, with a net inflow of $1.019 billion on August 11th Eastern Time. The current total net asset value of the Ethereum spot ETF is $25.712 billion, with holdings of approximately 6 million ETH, accounting for 4.96% of the current ETH circulating supply, compared to 6.48% for the BTC ETF, leaving room for growth. Additionally, 70 Ethereum reserve entities currently hold about 3.49 million ETH, accounting for 2.89% of the ETH circulating supply. BMNR has publicly stated a goal of ultimately holding 5% of the global Ethereum circulating supply. After deducting 36.17 million ETH in staking lockup, the free float is only around 75.1 million.
The following price calculation is based on a simple assumption: the reduction in free float will proportionally increase the price per coin.
New price = Current price × (Target free float / Current free float)
If ETF and institutional reserves are viewed as a single entity, they currently hold 7.85% of the total supply. Assuming this percentage increases to 10% with no significant change in staking lockup, the free float will shrink to about 72.52 million, mechanically pushing the price to around $4,647; if it increases to 15%, it would rise to about $5,070; if it increases to 20%, it would approach $6,000.
This doesn't even consider the amplification effect on the demand side, and the actual increase could be higher. Moreover, incremental funds from ETFs and institutions usually take some time to complete delivery, meaning the ETH price center will be steadily and long-term elevated, not a short-term spike.
03, Metcalfe's Law
Many people focus on price fluctuations and hot narratives when discussing ETH valuation, overlooking the long-term support of on-chain activity to network value. Metcalfe's Law states that a network's value is proportional to the square of its active user count. Applied to Ethereum, it means network value ≈ k × (daily active addresses)².
Simply put, "more users, more valuable network", with user quantity growing quadratically leading to exponential market value growth.
According to BitInfoCharts, on August 13, 2025, the mainnet's daily active addresses (DAA) were about 971,486, with ETH currently priced around $4,500, total circulation of about 120.7 million, and market cap of about $5.431 billion. Plugging into the formula gives the current coefficient k ≈ 0.576 (USD/address²).
With this k, prices can be estimated for different activity scenarios:
If DAA increases to 1 million, price around $4,768 (+6%)
If DAA increases to 1.1 million, price around $5,769 (+28.2%)
If optimistically reaching 1.3 million (close to 90% of historical peak), price around $8,058 (+79.1%)
This calculation assumes stable staking and circulation, with increased activity directly amplifying network value and thus ETH price. Unlike ETF and institutional buying, the Metcalfe method reflects the endogenous growth of on-chain usage and economic activity, not dependent on external fund inflows but based on network effect compound accumulation.
Note that once activity and capital converge - increased on-chain transactions, rising fees, burning volume revival - coupled with the ETF and institutional shrinking effect, ETH price will be driven by both supply contraction and network expansion, potentially accelerating far beyond single-factor predictions.
04, NVT Model
NVT is essentially a "crypto PE", which can reverse-derive market cap and price given a reasonable NVT multiple and future daily transfer amount.
NVT = Market Cap (USD) / Daily On-chain Transfer Amount (USD), calculation shows current NVT=518B/14B=37
ETH's NVT historically ranges around 60-110, currently at the lower end of history. Assuming NVT multiple in a reasonable range of 60/80/90/100/110 in 6-12 months; on-chain transfer amount (USD) considering volatility in the range of $7B-$14B/day.
6-month scenarios
Conservative: NVT 70, daily transfer $7B → Market Cap ≈ $490B → Price ≈ $4,059
Baseline: NVT 80, daily transfer $9B → Market Cap ≈ $720B → Price ≈ $5,965
Optimistic: NVT 90, daily transfer $12B → Market Cap ≈ $1080B → Price ≈ $8,947
12-month scenarios
Conservative: NVT 75, daily transfer $8B → Market Cap ≈ $600T → Price ≈ $4,971
Baseline: NVT 90, daily transfer $10B → Market Cap ≈ $900T → Price ≈ $7,456
Optimistic: NVT 100, daily transfer $14B → Market Cap ≈ $1400T → Price ≈ $11,598
In other words, ETH's network effect is supporting a valuation base of $5,000-$12,000.
05, On-chain Cash Flow Model
Viewing Ethereum protocol's on-chain "revenue" (fees + MEV, etc.) as cash flow to measure network value. As the Ethereum application ecosystem expands, network "revenue" growth can enhance ETH valuation.
Asset management firm VanEck, based on this approach, predicts that in 2025, with benefits like ETH staking yield and ETF introduction, ETH price could approach $6,000. As early as their 2023 report, VanEck estimated ETH price, assuming continuous rise in on-chain fees and usage, with the model projecting ETH could reach around $11,800 by 2030. Refer to the image below:
06, Candlestick Technical Analysis
@CryptoPainter believes that although ETH currently faces some historical selling pressure from the 2021 high, the technical structure on the 4-hour level is still slowly rising without significant destruction.
Observing the ASR channel, ETH price is oscillating above the orange average pressure band, a strong pattern indicating market demand is gradually digesting supply near historical highs.
The daily ASR channel shows signs of breaking through the average pressure band. The last similar breakthrough occurred in early 2024, and if this breakthrough succeeds, the daily target might directly touch the daily overbought line (around $5,600).
Another possibility is a replay of the late 2024 trend, encountering ultimate resistance at the orange channel's upper limit.
Overall, the current situation remains positive, with a possibility of ETH price challenging $6,000 in the medium term.
07, Crypto Analyst Scenario Simulation
Some crypto analysts and media provide scenario-based ETH price predictions:
1, Crypto analyst @VirtualBacon0x believes ETH has entered a new macro bull market. In the baseline scenario, ETH is expected to rise to the $6,000-$7,000 range by the end of 2025, with a long-term target of around $10,000 by mid-2026. In an extremely optimistic scenario with full market frenzy, BTC hitting $200,000 and ETH overperforming, Virtual Bacon estimates ETH could potentially reach as high as $16,000.
2. Wall Street analyst Tom Lee candidly stated in the Bankless podcast in July that in the short term, ETH should at least rebound to $4,000; and by the end of 2025, it is reasonable for ETH to rise to $7,000, or even reach $12,000 or $15,000.
3. BitMEX's former CEO Arthur Hayes provided a target price of around $10,000 for ETH by the end of 2025, which belongs to an optimistic bull market scenario. In his article in July 2025, he emphasized that the U.S. policy shift towards credit expansion will bring massive liquidity, coupled with renewed interest from Western institutions in Ethereum, and these macro factors will become key catalysts for driving ETH's rise.
4. Crypto media Bankless proposed in its 2025 outlook that ETH may hit $15,000 in an extremely bullish scenario. In their annual prediction, they stated that new driving forces such as the AI boom might trigger a new wave of crypto market frenzy, and under this optimistic situation, Ethereum's price has the opportunity to climb to the ten-thousand-dollar level. The underlying assumptions include abundant market liquidity, narrative trends (such as AI+Crypto), and Ethereum's continued dominance in the DeFi field.
08. Summary
Combining 6 valuation methods, ETH has a high probability of reaching the $6,000-$8,000 range in 2025. If market sentiment is high and on-chain activity continues to grow, breaking through $10,000 is not impossible, and in an extremely optimistic scenario, it may touch the $12,000-$15,000 range.
This is not just "market speculation," but a joint interpretation of on-chain data, capital behavior, and macro liquidity. Regardless of whether it ultimately reaches $10,000, ETH, as the infrastructure of the crypto ecosystem, has already established itself in multiple value pricing systems.
What do you think about ETH's potential in this cycle? Welcome to comment and discuss.
Risk Warning: The content of this article is for informational reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. ETH's price is influenced by multiple factors such as market sentiment, on-chain activity, and policy changes, with high volatility. Please make decisions based on your own risk tolerance and bear the investment risks yourself.
Twitter: https://twitter.com/BitpushNewsCN
Bitpush TG Community: https://t.me/BitPushCommunity
Bitpush TG Subscription: https://t.me/bitpush
