On August 12, markets broadly expect July CPI at +0.2% MoM / 2.8% YoY, and core CPI at +0.3% MoM / 3.0% YoY. Whether the data comes in “hot” or “cool,” both outcomes could trigger sharp moves across equities, FX, bonds, and risk assets in the short term, with two-way risk elevated.
Bitunix Analyst’s View:
BTC is consolidating in the $120K–$123K high-supply zone, with heavy sell pressure above. Secondary supports lie at $116K and $112K. Without strong volume to break above supply, price risks rejection and pullback.
If CPI is cool (boosting rate-cut expectations), watch the USD and Treasury yields; a breakout above supply on strong daily volume could open new upside potential.
If CPI is hot (reducing rate-cut odds), rejection at $120K–$123K or a daily close below $117K could trigger deeper corrections.
In absence of a clear direction, stay on the sidelines or use small position options for hedging, maintain tight trailing stops, and track volume, DXY, and Treasury yields for confirmation.
