On August 9th, the important macroeconomic data to be released next week are as follows:
Tuesday:
US July CPI data;
2027 FOMC committee member, Richmond Fed President Barkin to deliver a speech.
Thursday:
Chicago Fed President Goolsbee to speak on monetary policy;
Atlanta Fed President Bostic to speak on US economic prospects;
US initial jobless claims for the week ending August 9th, August PPI data.
Friday:
US July retail sales month-on-month rate, July import price index month-on-month rate;
US August one-year inflation rate expectation initial value, monthly University of Michigan consumer confidence index initial value.
Additionally, Trump has announced the nomination of "crypto-friendly" official Stephen Miran as a Federal Reserve Board member, with a term until January 31, 2026. According to public information, during his time as chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, he explicitly supported the Trump administration's friendly policy towards cryptocurrencies. He believes cryptocurrencies have potential in stimulating economic growth, driving financial innovation, and combating inflation, especially in the context of Trump's economic plan. However, the nomination still requires Senate approval.
Next week, traders will focus on the July CPI and PPI data to be released on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively, as well as the retail sales data and August University of Michigan consumer confidence preliminary survey report to be released on Friday. Even before the mutually imposed tariffs take effect, inflation data higher than expected could prompt traders to reduce their bets on rate cuts. However, if Friday's retail sales data shows economic difficulties are more severe than expected, market expectations for a September rate cut and another rate cut before the end of the year are unlikely to change, but this could limit and make any dollar appreciation from the CPI short-lived. More importantly, Trump remains willing to impose tariffs on more countries. Therefore, if the situation gets out of control, more sell-offs of US assets may occur in the near future.
