Original | Odaily (@OdailyChina）
Author | Golem (@web3_golem）
Being a Bitcoin investor is tough, living in fear of constant price increases every day.
OKX market data shows that Bitcoin today rose and broke through $120,000 for the first time, setting a new historical high. Altcoins also performed well. According to Quantify Crypto data, among the top 200 market cap altcoins, only 15 tokens declined in the past 24 hours, with the rest trending upward. HBAR rose over 25% in the past 24 hours, SUI rose over 12.18%, while top market cap altcoins like ETH, SOL, BNB, and XRP saw 1-5% gains in the past 24 hours.
Meanwhile, Hong Kong-listed crypto concept stocks continued to expand their gains, with Ouke Cloud Chain rising over 30%, Xiong'an Technology rising 18%, and Blue Port Interactive rising over 10%.
Even without looking at the chart, one can tell the situation looks great. However, unlike previous breakthroughs at $69,000 and $100,000, market sentiment hasn't shown much FOMO. Although social media is filled with good news reports, community group chats remain unusually quiet. Have industry insiders already taken profits? Why isn't everyone shouting about mooning this time?
Bitcoin Investors Numbed by Continuous Rises
Even a small rebound after an 80% altcoin pullback would excite trapped investors to shout "bull market"; however, continuously new high Bitcoin, even without trapping any investors, makes the "+%" relative value increasingly smaller, only causing numbness. Moreover, with continuous positive global crypto regulatory policies, increasing Bitcoin treasury listed companies, and stock token compliance operations, Bitcoin has risen for three consecutive months since April 2025, with a total increase of over 46% in three months.
Investors' excitement threshold is gradually rising, with expectations shifting more towards altcoins. Google Trends data also shows that public interest in Bitcoin searches is far lower than during the bull markets in 2017 and 2021.
10x Research's latest report also points out that Bitcoin's recent historical high is not driven by market speculation, but by deeper macroeconomic changes.The U.S. raising the $5 trillion debt ceiling, massive deficit spending, and the upcoming crypto policy report from the Trump working group are collectively reshaping the macro landscape.The report believes Bitcoin has transformed into a macro asset hedging against unbridled fiscal spending, with its narrative logic fundamentally changing. The FOMC meetings on July 22nd and 30th may become key catalysts for redefining Bitcoin's role in the financial system.
Therefore, regarding Bitcoin breaking through $120,000, the market lacks direct stimulation reasons, but is the result of a series of previous positive factors continuously fermenting. Cryptoquant analyst Axel Adler Jr also found reasons for July's rise from an empirical perspective, "Based on historical data from 2012-2025, July is one of the most reliable months for Bitcoin growth: 10 out of 14 cases (71%) showed positive returns. Additionally, October has the highest reliability, with 'positive' months reaching 77%."
Altcoins Show Improvement But Not Ideal
Another major reason affecting market sentiment might be that although altcoins have seen gains from July 11th to now, they haven't reached investors' expectations. OKX market data shows that after 5 months, ETH today rose above 3050 USDT (February 3rd), but painfully, Bitcoin's highest price 5 months ago (February 3rd) was $102,500. Relatively speaking, Bitcoin still has a 17% increase, while Ethereum remains stagnant.
The scenario of "Bitcoin shining alone, altcoins not following or even declining" has been a continuous topic among investors in 2024. At that time, Bitcoin had U.S. spot ETF and institutional purchases as support, while altcoins were experiencing VC trust crisis, massive token unlocks, and meme coins absorbing speculative funds. Shorting altcoins became the primary trading strategy. Therefore, even now, some investors remain wary of altcoins and have no hope for the altcoin season.
However, the crypto market changes rapidly, and as investors, we should read the situation and adjust timely. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart's July prediction of crypto spot ETF approval probabilities before the end of 2025 suggests that the SEC might approve multiple altcoin ETFs in the second half of 2025. LTC, SOL, and XRP have a 95% approval probability, while DOGE, HBAR, Cardano, Polkadot, and Avalanche have a 90% expected approval. SUI has a 60% probability, and Tron/TRX and Pengu have a 50% probability.
Moreover, various "altcoin" treasury strategies are being established. CZ even stated that over 30 teams want to launch BNB treasury-related public company projects, indicating altcoins are entering an era of ETF and institutional purchase support.
Multiple KOLs also expressed optimism about the upcoming altcoin season in July. LD Capital founder "e General" Yi Lihua wrote that the altcoin season might have to wait until August or September when rate cuts are confirmed, and the market truly experiences liquidity overflow.
Crypto KOL Miles Deutscher commented on PUMP's 12-minute public sale of $500 million, saying, "This shows that when the right opportunity arises, there's still substantial liquidity willing to participate. Altcoins aren't 'dead', they just need the right narrative."
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes also wrote, "Sentiment has now shifted, Bitcoin broke historical highs with good trading volume; Ethereum is following closely and will outperform. The altcoin season is coming. The market believes Trump might take unexpected actions on tariffs. The Maelstrom family office fund has increased bullish positions."
Of course, there are many more signals about the upcoming altcoin season, but listing them can't compare to investors' own firm confidence. We hope next time we can shout together: Altcoins, take off!
