Skew Curves Shift Towards Calls

BTC Sets New Weekly Highs As Institutions Double Down

Bitcoin closed above $109k, hitting its highest weekly close ever despite heavy whale movements over the weekend. Major players like Metaplanet and Strategy kept the market propped up.

Institutional flows remain strong. US spot BTC ETFs added another $4.6B in June, pushing total market cap past $75B. BlackRock’s IBIT now even beats its flagship S&P 500 ETF in annual fee revenue.

ETH also saw $1.16B in ETF inflows, driven by profitable CME trades. Meanwhile, Robinhood and Republic launched pre-IPO tokens tracking giants like OpenAI and SpaceX, opening doors for retail traders. Erebor Bank, Circle, and Ripple are pushing crypto banking forward with new charters and services.

Bottom line? Institutional adoption is booming. The crypto market is evolving fast – stay ahead or get left behind.

Volatility Stays Low, But Don’t Get Too Comfortable

Realised vol remains crushed: BTC at 23%, ETH at 45%. Front-end vols fell again – BTC down 5 vols, ETH down 3 vols – rewarding gamma sellers with healthy 7-11 vol carry.

Price action stayed tight all week, with ranges well respected, even for ETH. But be cautious: when the market coils like this, a breakout in either direction often follows. Selling gamma here might not stay easy for long.

Options Skew Shifts Towards Calls

We’re seeing skew curves tilt up towards calls. The 1-week skew flipped from a small put bias to a slight call skew.

For BTC, call skew peaks at +2 vols in Sep25 before settling to +1 vol further out. ETH still shows a slight put premium for July expiries, but from Sep25 onwards, call premiums of around +1 vol are holding.

ETH/BTC Edges Higher As Vol Spreads Adjust

ETH/BTC continues to grind up in a quiet market. Front-end vol spreads widened slightly as BTC vol took a bigger hit, while back-end spreads narrowed as ETH vega sellers stepped in, reducing its hefty 20 vol premium to BTC.

Skew remains put-biased for ETH in the front end compared to BTC, extending into the back end. My Dec25 ETH/BTC vega spread – selling ETH vs buying BTC strangles – is starting to slowly pay off.

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