Author | Ding Dong (@XiaMiPP)
Original Title: Will the "Top Whale" Strategy Hint at Pausing Purchases, Bringing a Critical Turning Point for BTC?
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) CEO Michael Saylor posted on Sunday: "Some weeks you just need to HODL." The market interpreted this as a hint of pausing Bitcoin purchases.
As the global listed company with the largest Bitcoin holdings, Michael Saylor's investment philosophy has always been "Bitcoin first", and investors have grown accustomed to "buying" being in his DNA. Therefore, every pause by Strategy touches the market's most sensitive nerve, especially in the context of consecutive 13 weeks of BTC accumulation.
[Rest of the translation continues in the same professional and accurate manner, maintaining the original structure and meaning while translating to English]Worse, the company is accused of failing to disclose these floating loss risks in a timely and comprehensive manner. The well-known New York law firm Pomerantz LLP immediately initiated a class-action lawsuit against Strategy in the Eastern District of Virginia, alleging "false and misleading statements" between April 2024 and April 2025, potentially violating federal securities laws. The case is currently in progress, and investors can apply to join the class-action lawsuit by July 15. Strategy states that it will actively respond but has not predicted the case outcome.
This means that the Bit price not only determines Strategy's asset value but is also determining its legal risks, financing capabilities, and investor confidence.
Market Voices
Michael Saylor stated that Strategy developed a BTC credit model that comprehensively considers loan terms, collateral coverage, BTC price, volatility, and expected annual returns to generate Bitcoin risk and credit spread statistics. Strategy is promoting digital transformation in the credit market through its STRK, STRF, and STRD, which also means that Strategy's path is no longer just buying Bit, but more like building a systematic closed loop around BTC capitalization and financialization.
A report from venture capital firm Breed indicates that due to its scale, holdings, and countercyclical capabilities, Strategy may become a long-term survivor of the crypto fiscal model, with a 91% probability of being included in the S&P 500 index in the second quarter of 2025.
However, not everyone is so optimistic. Some analysts point out that while the flywheel runs smoothly in a bull market, it will face severe tests in a bear market regarding its debt structure, preferred stock interest, and cash flow stability.
On July 1, TD Cowen reiterated a "buy" rating on Strategy and maintained its target price of $590 per share. They stated that despite risks, Strategy's stock price premium relative to its net asset value (NAV) of Bit (BTC) is reasonable. The institution noted that Strategy's "equity-to-BTC loop" model allows it to use stock issuance proceeds to purchase more Bit, thereby driving higher stock prices and further Bit purchases, forming a virtuous cycle.
Based on current data, Strategy's short-term cash flow can "barely maintain" itself, with its Bit holdings being the absolute protagonist on the company's balance sheet. But this is also its greatest risk: its prosperity is almost built on the assumption of stable or rising BTC prices. In a sense, Strategy is no longer a traditional tech company, but more like a "high-leverage Bit asset management platform" wrapped in software.
