Author: Pine Analytics
Compiled by: TechFlow
Summary
Eclipse Labs has raised $65 million from top investors to build a Layer-2 based on the Solana Virtual Machine (SVM) on Ethereum. Supported by companies like Polychain, Placeholder, and Hack VC, Eclipse positions itself as a high-performance, cross-chain Rollup platform with ambitious architectural plans.
However, despite substantial funding and good reputation, the on-chain reality is entirely different. Activity is shallow and transient, primarily driven by airdrop mining rather than natural demand. Gas fees, deposit amounts, and Total Value Locked (TVL) have been declining. The current application ecosystem lacks a uniquely valuable product—most are just weaker copies of other products.
Due to the lack of outstanding applications and declining usage, Eclipse's token issuance cycle valuation is too high. Despite insufficient network fundamentals to support this valuation, its fully diluted valuation is expected to exceed $300 million.
The possible outcome is: after a brief short squeeze, sustained selling pressure will follow, as insiders and market makers will profit from retail investors' interest and then exit.
Unless Eclipse provides products that can only exist in its stack, tokens will temporarily inflate the ecosystem—and then gravity will pull it back to earth.
Fundraising
Since its establishment, Eclipse Labs has raised $65 million through multiple funding rounds, becoming one of the most well-funded Ethereum Layer-2 projects.
[The translation continues in this manner for the entire text, maintaining the specified translations for specific terms.]Only 3 applications have a TVL exceeding $2 million (Orca, Astrol, Save).
Most others' salaries are below $500,000, with some even lower than $100,000.
The 1-month change column shows almost all major protocols experiencing significant double-digit declines (Astrol -24%, Invariant -28%, Neptune -27%).
This situation indicates that developers have not found sticky traction, and users have not found a useful or profitable reason to stay.
Lack of Focus
Eclipse's application ecosystem currently lacks any unique and valuable products. The existing application mix—DEX, lending markets, stablecoins, Non-Fungible Token markets—is structurally identical to existing applications on Solana, ETH, or other Layer-2 platforms. In most cases, they offer fewer features, lower liquidity, and lack competitive advantages.
For a blockchain to sustain long-term usage and justify its block space, it needs a clear differentiation point—an application or experience unavailable elsewhere. So far, Eclipse has not achieved this.
Instead, the network's short-term activity is almost entirely driven by airdrop mining. While the upcoming token issuance might temporarily spark user interest, it is unlikely to attract attention without a core reason for retention. Token incentives can generate user momentum, but cannot replace genuine product-market fit.
Without outstanding native applications, the ecosystem might rapidly disintegrate post-TGE. Builders will leave to seek more liquid platforms. Users will migrate to chains offering token exit opportunities. And this network—despite substantial funding and engineering prowess—might become irrelevant, not due to technical failure, but because there's nothing truly important within it.
If Eclipse wants a future, it needs to incubate or attract an application only achievable on its architecture—an application that leverages SVM in a way no EVM chain can replicate. Otherwise, tokens will only temporarily inflate the ecosystem before gravity pulls it back to earth.
Expected Token Issuance Dynamics
Based on similar projects and Eclipse's ecosystem status, the most likely outcome is TGE valuation misalignment. Despite declining usage and lack of sticky applications, Eclipse's Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) is expected to exceed its recent private funding round—potentially over $300 million. This will immediately place it among the highest-valued L2 platforms, despite lacking corresponding fundamentals.
Perpetual contract markets might launch shortly after, with traders beginning to short the token to compress its price to its appropriate level. In response, market makers and early supporters will squeeze these shorts, temporarily driving up prices until short positions become manageable. Once liquidity dries up, stakeholders holding unlocked or liquid tokens will gradually start selling, creating sustained selling pressure and triggering a typically prolonged, severe downward trend.
This pattern—overpriced issuance, initial market short squeeze, followed by long-term distribution—is common in overhyped, low-utility ecosystems. Without a natural demand catalyst or unique applications to attract attention, Eclipse's token will likely follow a similar trajectory.
Final Thoughts
Eclipse has raised substantial funds, built an impressive technical stack, and attracted top-tier investors' attention. However, these have not translated into sustained user demand, product-market fit, or a reason for the blockchain's existence beyond short-term speculation.
The current reality is clear: Eclipse lacks a killer application, sticky user base, and any unique reason for developers or capital to remain post-token issuance. The token's launch will likely resemble many previous token launches—a brief hype wave followed by sustained selling pressure due to insider rotation and lack of natural demand.
Eclipse might still find its footing, but the path requires more than funding and clever architecture. It needs to provide something only Eclipse can offer—not just technically, but economically and experientially. Until then, the project's valuation will be out of sync with its utility, and its token pricing will be more narrative-driven than usage-based.
In such a market, downward gravity will ultimately prevail.
