Original Author: Unipcs (aka 'Bonk Guy')
Compiled by: TechFlow
Recently, many people have been asking me about my thoughts on Pump.fun's TGE (Token Generation Event) and its $PUMP token.
Since this is one of the most anticipated TGE events recently, and many people have started comparing it with BonkFun - after all, BonkFun has been in the spotlight since surpassing Pump.fun - I feel it's necessary to organize my thoughts.
Here's what I currently understand about the $PUMP token:
They reportedly raised $1 billion, with a valuation of $4 billion.
Prediction and over-the-counter markets estimate the token's valuation will reach $7-8 billion after TGE, with some trading institutions even believing it could reach $10 billion.
So, what does this mean for $BONK, the BonkFun ecosystem, and the broader trenches (grassroots users) and meme coin market?
I previously commented on X that it's reasonable for the $PUMP token's valuation to easily reach $4 billion.
I also stated that it could easily become one of the top 10 to 15 crypto projects.
These comments were based on Pump.fun's history and expected revenue compared to other crypto project valuations.
However, I didn't anticipate how quickly and strongly BonkFun would surpass Pumpfun.
That said, here's my updated perspective:
I don't believe Pump.fun has completely lost momentum, but I do think BonkFun is likely to maintain its industry leadership in the foreseeable future.
Here are my reasons:
BonkFun's positioning of "supporting creators/users/Solana ecosystem" is its huge advantage.
The strong support culture within the BONK ecosystem has gradually permeated tokens launched through BonkFun. This culture is difficult for other projects to quickly replicate.
Pump.fun, as a tokenless protocol, once had massive momentum, especially with expectations of TGE and potential airdrops. However, it was strongly surpassed by BonkFun in the days or weeks before TGE. It's hard to imagine it could recover its previous market share after TGE.
Although all launchpads are plagued by bot issues, I believe a significant portion of Pump.fun's activity comes from active high-level users and bots trading actively to earn rewards while anticipating airdrops. After all, Pump.fun was once the most profitable protocol in crypto, so this phenomenon was expected. But I think this activity will slow down or stop after TGE as incentives end.
These factors make BonkFun's growth even more impressive! Its growth is entirely organic and driven by its close integration with the Solana ecosystem, without any token or incentive promises - because the $BONK token already existed before BonkFun's launch and has always clearly stated that platform fees would be used for BONK buyback and burn.
Notably, much of BonkFun's growth comes from its rapid global popularity, especially its cultural associations with important communities. For example, the broad acceptance in the Chinese market has made it the top launchpad in the region, attracting massive users to Solana and launching a record number of tokens, far exceeding other blockchains. This is one of BonkFun's core advantages and an area of continued growth - an important area many may still not fully recognize.
Moreover, this doesn't even consider some potential strategic moves BonkFun might take in the future.
Overall, I believe BonkFun has strategically positioned itself to maintain a leading position in the launchpad space long-term, of course, contingent on smooth execution!
I acknowledge that Pump.fun might release some interesting announcements before its TGE to try to reclaim market share... but even then, I believe its impact will be short-lived.
The PUMP TGE is a positive catalyst driving $BONK, BonkFun, and the BonkFun ecosystem's development.
Many have been promoting the upcoming $PUMP TGE as an event that would drain trenches' funds, top meme coins, and BonkFun ecosystem liquidity.
If the TGE had happened 1-2 weeks earlier, this argument might have had some merit, but I don't think that's the case going forward.
BonkFun's decisive victory in strongly surpassing Pumpfun so close to the TGE will suppress market enthusiasm for $PUMP and prevent the draining of meme coin and trench funds. Given the recent market context, a comprehensive sell-off of high-conviction assets to invest in $PUMP is clearly unreasonable.
It's becoming increasingly obvious that the real $PUMP TGE trade is actually the $BONK and BonkFun ecosystem...
While the $PUMP token economics remain very opaque and we know little about its specifics, here are some things we do know:
50% of BonkFun's fees are used to buy and burn $BONK tokens.
A total of 58% of BonkFun's fees are used to buy $BONK tokens in some form.
I can't predict what $PUMP's final token economics will look like, but I find it hard to see how it could be more competitive than BonkFun's current model.
Especially considering that Pump.fun, while raising $1 billion and being valued at $4 billion, remains an extremely profitable enterprise (earning nearly $1 billion in the past year and a half!)
Therefore, I believe the real $PUMP TGE trade is the $BONK and BonkFun ecosystem:
If $PUMP raises funds at a $4 billion valuation and is third-party assessed at up to $10 billion, then considering $BONK's recent market dominance and potential for continued future dominance, how much should $BONK be worth?
More importantly, BonkFun is just one of many ecosystem products all adding buying and burning pressure to $BONK.
At $BONK's current $1.8 billion market cap, it is clearly undervalued.
If I were an objective investor, I would believe that buying $BONK with a $1.8 billion market cap offers better investment returns in the current environment compared to buying $PUMP at a $4 billion or higher valuation.
I also believe the BonkFun ecosystem will attract more buying pressure and quickly reprice itself towards a higher valuation under current conditions.
Moreover, this doesn't even consider Pump.fun potentially losing more momentum and market share after completing its TGE, being even more significantly surpassed by BonkFun.
BonkFun's continued dominance is extremely positive for the meme coin market and trench ecosystem.
One of the main reasons many industry insiders firmly support BonkFun and oppose Pumpfun is that Pump.fun is perceived as too "predatory".
This "predatory" reputation mainly stems from their massive $SOL sales, which continue (amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars!)
The success of meme coins and on-chain activity is strongly correlated with the price trend of the blockchain's native token, such as $SOL on the Solana chain.
If $SOL's price continues to rise or remains relatively stable, this will have a positive impact on the trench ecosystem and on-chain activity, as more people will be interested in participating in the meme coin "casino".
This means more stable prices for major meme coins, higher bottom support for newly launched low-cap meme coins, and more inspiration for meme coin and narrative creation.
And in this regard, BonkFun perfectly fits this trend:
15% of the fees generated by BonkFun are staked in BONKSol validator nodes in the form of $SOL. This not only reduces the selling pressure on $SOL but also contributes to the security of the Solana network by staking a large number of tokens as validator nodes.
58% of the fees generated by BonkFun are used to buy $BONK. Those familiar with the meme coin market know that "dogs move in packs," meaning the continuous rise of a strong meme coin can drive other large-cap meme coins and stimulate market speculation, promoting the launch of more new meme coins and narratives.
Therefore, in this case, BonkFun reduces the selling pressure on $SOL while pushing $BONK to an incredible valuation through more aggressive buying and burning operations.
The more frequently this phenomenon occurs, the more active the trench ecosystem becomes, and market speculation becomes stronger, forming a flywheel effect or cycle.
You can call it a "Bonk Flywheel" or "Bonk Cycle," the name doesn't matter, but the core logic is obvious!
I'm not sure how to express it better, but there's no doubt that BonkFun emerging as a clear, final, and decisive winner is the best development for the trench ecosystem and meme coin market—even if you don't hold any tokens in the BonkFun ecosystem.
To summarize finally...
BonkFun's latest success ensures one thing: $PUMP TGE, which was originally highly anticipated and thought by many to potentially cause fund outflows from the meme coin market and trench ecosystem, has transformed into a potential positive catalyst. A large amount of funds will flow into the $BONK and BonkFun ecosystem before and after the TGE, which will further promote the prosperity of the trench ecosystem.
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