Bitcoin has a CME gap near $107,500, and many analysts are optimistic about the market going higher this week | HashKey Trading Time

1. Market Observation

Last week, the U.S. market was closed for three days due to Independence Day holiday and weekend, with market sentiment appearing highly tense before reopening. During this period, the "big and beautiful" bill and tariff policy adjustments signed by the Trump administration became the focus, with U.S. Secretary of Commerce Rutnick revealing that higher tariffs might take effect on August 1st. Meanwhile, the U.S. stock market nearly set new historical highs almost daily in the past week, with investors' optimistic outlook on the global economic prospects driving the "TACO" trading mode. However, asset management companies' excessive bullishness on U.S. stocks might lead to concentrated market positions, potentially increasing volatility if negative news emerges.

Additionally, the Hong Kong market is focusing on stablecoins, a key infrastructure supporting value circulation in the crypto world. HashKey Chief Analyst Jeffrey Ding stated that the prosperity of stablecoins depends on whether public chains can meet their value circulation needs. Data shows that USDT trading volume on TRON exceeded 50% in the first quarter of 2025, surpassing Ethereum for the first time. He mentioned that HashKey Chain, as a compliant public chain, builds a "issuance-scenario-asset" closed loop, helping stablecoins integrate into the financial system and improve issuance and circulation efficiency through the HashKey ecosystem.

In the cryptocurrency market, 8 Bitcoin addresses dormant for 14 years were suddenly activated last Friday, transferring 80,000 Bitcoins, causing market panic and a 1.46% drop in Bitcoin price. Although the market fears potential selling pressure, blockchain intelligence company Arkham believes this transfer is more likely a technical wallet upgrade to enhance security and reduce transaction fees. Additionally, traders are closely watching the CME Bitcoin futures gap, with analyst CryptoJack pointing out the gap is at $107,570, typically viewed as a potential price return target. Regarding future market trends, analysts provided different price expectations: renowned analyst Pentoshi predicts a potential historical high this week, with prices possibly quickly rising to the $118,000-$120,000 range if breakthrough occurs. Arslan Butt noted that if it falls below $107,800, the target price would be $107,208-$106,275; AlphaBTC similarly focuses on lower support, suggesting monitoring whether the CME gap is filled and if the bullish order block near $106,000 can be maintained.

Regarding Ethereum, prominent crypto trader Eugene stated he carefully chose to bet on ETH, believing the market may rise this week. He mentioned that ETH's market positioning and momentum have significantly changed. After the market crash in April, ETH/BTC touched a multi-year low of 0.018, with market positions significantly lightened, currently at a three-year lowest structural position. Moreover, ETH is considered the primary choice for institutional and traditional financial infrastructure and stablecoin investments. ETH carries over 90% of stablecoin TVL, and with the U.S. pushing stablecoin-related regulations, ETH is expected to remain the primary chain, attracting more institutional attention. Eugene also noted that ETH's price still has significant catch-up potential compared to BTC, and if BTC breaks $110,000, the bull market might restart, with ETH typically performing strongly during this period. He believes ETH has medium-term rebound potential and has adjusted his position accordingly.

In the Altcoin market, BONK ecosystem's MEME projects are eye-catching. The token issuance platform LetsBONK first exceeded Pump.fun in daily token issuance, graduated tokens, and trading volume, with its token price doubling and market cap reaching $11.5 million. $BONK itself performed strongly, rising over 16% in 24 hours and approximately 60% in two weeks. Another project USELESS's market cap briefly exceeded $300 million yesterday, now stabilizing at $280 million. Simultaneously, Musk announced the establishment of the "American Party" over the weekend, with the related token america on the Bonk platform reaching a 24-hour trading volume of $28.8 million and a market cap of $5.6 million.

This article is supported by HashKey, HashKey Exchange is the largest licensed virtual asset exchange in Hong Kong and the most trusted crypto asset fiat gateway in Asia. Committed to defining new benchmarks for virtual asset exchanges in compliance, fund safety, and platform protection.