ChainCatcher reports that trader Eugene posted in his community: "I bet the market will have a breakthrough this week, and after careful consideration, my main target is ETH. Although I swore not to touch it at the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025, I now realize that ETH's position structure and market tailwinds have significantly changed.
Here's a summary of the main logic:
- 1. Extremely light structural positions: In April 2025, ETH suffered a market crash, dropping from $4,000 to $1,300, with the ETH/BTC exchange rate also touching a multi-year low of 0.018. This plunge was accompanied by a comprehensive capitulation sell-off by traders and early whales. Since then, ETH's trading has been markedly different from the past two years. Now, except for developers, almost no one views ETH as a core position, and most traders even refuse to touch it. As a result, from a high time frame (HTF) structural perspective, ETH's current position lightness is almost the lowest in three years.
- 2. ETH will become a stablecoin and infrastructure main chain for institutional and traditional financial bets: Although this statement has been frequently mentioned recently, and I was initially skeptical, objectively looking at the recent regulatory progress in the US, it's not difficult to speculate that institutions will eventually look for new allocation directions beyond BTC. ETH currently hosts over 90% of stablecoins, and this dominance is likely to continue. Considering the higher risks faced by other L1s, there is almost no commercial reason to shift tracks. Moreover, traditional financial representatives like Tom Lee have begun to express recognition of ETH, and with the US stablecoin bill in progress, ETH is gradually gaining institutional support from a "legal and compliant" perspective.
- 3. ETH has significant room for price catch-up: Although this point may not be decisive in itself, once market momentum starts, ETH's "lagging" price relative to BTC can easily become a point of propagation. Traditional financial buyers are often "information-delayed", which means the narrative that "it's not too late to buy ETH now" could become popular. If ETH returns to its historical high point (requiring about an 85% increase), the ETH/BTC would only return to the 0.044 level of September 2024. Even if ETH/BTC doesn't rise, as long as BTC breaks $110,000, the bull market will likely restart, and during such periods, ETH typically doesn't underperform. ETH's weak phases usually occur when BTC is sideways or declining.
- After thorough consideration, I firmly believe that from a medium-term structural perspective, ETH is a clear bet, and I have accordingly positioned and deployed.
