1. Week 26 Market Overview

This week, the cryptocurrency market as a whole showed a volatile downward trend. Bitcoin continued the volatile trend of last week until it fell below 107,000 on July 1 and then fell back to 105,150, then rebounded upward, forming a V-shaped reversal and breaking through 110,000. After the high and fall on July 4, the market fell into a long-short tug-of-war, and slightly consolidated between 107,000 and 109,000. Affected by this, altcoins generally followed the rise until they began to fall after July 3. The market sentiment index rose from 65% last week to 73%, and the overall sentiment was still in the bull range. The market entered a narrow range of fluctuations within 2,000 points.

2. Trading momentum and capital flow

2.1 Stablecoin Market Dynamics

As of June 19, the total market value of stablecoins continued to grow amid market fluctuations, indicating that funds are still flowing in. Among them, the difference in growth rates between USDT and USDC clearly reflects the dynamics of capital in different regions around the world.

1. USDT: The market value reached 158.622 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 1.2% from 156.72 billion U.S. dollars last week. The weekly increase exceeded 1 billion U.S. dollars for the seventh consecutive week, continuing to show a strong upward momentum.

2. USDC: The market value is 62.214 billion US dollars, up 0.72% from 61.77 billion US dollars last week, ending the downward trend last week and starting to rise.

It is worth noting that USDT is mainly circulated in the Asian market, while USDC is more used in the U.S. market. Judging from the current capital flows, Asian capital is still continuing to flow in and drive the market, while U.S. capital is also continuing to flow in and drive the market, showing that the two markets are clearly consistent at the current stage.

2.2 Market trading momentum continued to be sluggish this week

- BTC overall trading volume continued to be sluggish, with almost zero fluctuations during the holiday period.

- The market is bullish this week but in a range-bound state, approaching the previous high pressure level, with a lot of selling pressure around $110,000.

2.3 On-chain pricing model: short-term holder costs

1. Model Introduction: The Short-term Holder Cost Basis (STH Cost Basis) is a key on-chain pricing model that represents the average holding cost of recent market participants. Historically, this price level is a key watershed that distinguishes bull and bear trends in the market. To provide a richer statistical dimension, we can apply standard deviation above and below the STH cost basis to construct dynamic support and resistance ranges. These price ranges (Bands) quantify the price consensus range of the short-term holder group, and their outer boundaries are usually key areas that mark trend exhaustion or potential breakthroughs.

The current key price levels are as follows:

- 111-Day Moving Average (111DMA): ~$97,017 (short-term price support/resistance zone)

- 200-day moving average (200DMA): about $96,349 (medium-term structural support)

- 365-day moving average (365DMA): about $84,602 (long-term trend support)

- 200-week moving average (200WMA): about $49,401 (historical bull-bear boundary)

- Current Bitcoin Price (BTC Price): Approximately $108,157

Interpretation of recent market dynamics:

As of July 5, 2025, the price of Bitcoin has stabilized at around $108,157, and continues to stand above all technical moving averages, indicating that the medium- and short-term structure is still bullish:

- BTC price continues to be above 111DMA ($97,017) and 200DMA ($96,349), indicating that short-term and medium-term bullish momentum has not weakened significantly and technical support is still available.

- It is only one step away from the previous historical high pressure zone (about $110,000), and may face profit-taking and selling pressure tests in the short term.

- 365DMA ($84,602) and 200WMA ($49,401) continue to rise, reflecting the stability of the long-term trend and providing basic support for the long-term bull market.

- Prices are trading above all key moving averages, suggesting that the market could be in a consolidation phase before a new trend starts.

- From the graph, we can see that BTC has clearly gotten rid of last year's oscillating structure since March, and is currently in a stage where the moving averages are arranged in a bullish pattern and the price is trading sideways at a high level to absorb chips.

Overall, the technical structure of the market is healthy, but the short-term has entered the previous high pressure zone. If there is no new funds or news support, the price may face the possibility of shock pullback to test the support. If it breaks through $110,000 and stabilizes with large volume, there will be a chance to start a new wave of upward trend; otherwise, it is necessary to observe whether the technical support line around $97,000 is effective.

2.4 Ancient giant whales stretch themselves and wait for an opportunity to shock the market

In the following analysis, we fully quote the articles and opinions of the well-known Twitter KOL Murphy . If you are interested in this kind of in-depth market observation, you can follow his social account to obtain first-hand information.

Currently, there are a total of 19.88 million BTC chips in circulation, of which 1.617 million have never been moved in the past 7-10 years, and 3.346 million have been held for more than 10 years, totaling 4.96 million.

Figure 1

In sharp contrast, 2.4 million BTC have been held for less than 3 months, which is less than half of the ultra-long-term holdings. However, even BTC held for more than 10 years is being consumed. Not all BTC held during that period are permanently placed in the "safe".

In the past two years, the fastest period of consumption (selling) of BTC held for more than 10 years occurred from November 2024 to January 2025, followed by April 2025 to July 2025.

Figure 2

Therefore, the sale of ancient coins may happen every day, but some are exposed and some are not. It seems that this "thunder" is really big. What if these old OGs all jump out to dump the market one by one, won't BTC really go to zero?

But strangely, the super-rich seem to turn a blind eye to these potential big thunders. We see that wallets with 100-1k BTC hold 20.6% of the total circulation; those holding 1k-1w BTC account for 27.5% of the total circulation; these are also the two largest groups of coin holders.

If we add in wallets holding 10,000-100,000 coins and wallets holding more than 100,000 coins, the total share reaches a staggering 62.7%!

Figure 3

What does this mean? Based on the current BTC price of 110,000 USD, a person holding 100 BTC is equivalent to owning 11 million USD (nearly 80 million RMB) in assets. In other words, more than 60% of BTC is held by tycoons with a net worth of over 100 million USD.

Of course, this includes Satoshi Nakamoto and the BTC that has actually been lost, as well as many professional institutions, traditional enterprises, etc. But in any case, this data can tell us for sure: BTC is slowly shifting to a longer-term and wealthier group of people.

These big guys shouldn't be fools, haha...

Data source: Murphy

3. On-chain data and indicators

3.1 Market Sentiment Index Analysis

The market sentiment index rose from 66% last week to 73%. BTC rose 3.33% this week, ETH rose 7.55% this week, and TOTAL3 rose 3.61% this week. Altcoin as a whole is still suppressed by the downward trend line and has not yet broken through.

3.2 New highs are inevitable

In the following analysis, we fully quote the articles and opinions of Mr. Berg, a well-known Twitter KOL. If you are interested in this kind of in-depth market observation, you can follow his social media account to obtain first-hand information.

I don’t know how many people still remember the picture below, which I posted in a quote tweet on May 30. Looking back now, my judgment on the callback position at that time was acceptable. Some time ago, many people always thought that "new highs are impossible", but now that new highs are just around the corner, the probability of creating an ATH (historical high) next is still quite high.

After the new high, there will most likely be a new round of violent and volatile bull-bear battles, and the RUP divergence that I have been paying attention to, the Stop Hunt after the new high, and even the huge Realized Profit, may all explode at once... Be patient and don't see too many other signals today; although I am very bearish on the trend after the new high, I will not go in nakedly, but will wait until the signal is established before taking action.

Data source: Mr. Berg

3.3 Observation of US capital sentiment curve

This week, BTC was mainly on the rise, returning to above 110K at one point.

The current price has been fluctuating between 98K and 112K for nearly 2 months.

As BTC approaches ATH, we have to look carefully.

Is it possible for the current rise to replicate the situation at the beginning of the year or even the second peak in 2021?

1) URPD

📊The current accumulation above 93K is 5,131,552 BTC. The amount of chips distributed above 93K this week has increased again, which may be related to the 80,000 BTC ancient whale that was suddenly activated this week.

I mentioned last week and the week before last that "a large number of chips are highly concentrated at 104-106K". This week it has eased a little, and some chips have expanded upward. The current highly concentrated area is around 104-109K.

But despite the expansion, it is still in a highly concentrated state. Combined with the volatility indicators shared before (currently still in the low volatility area), the possibility of large fluctuations next week is still not small ⚠️

2) RUP and Realized Profit

For the analysis logic of RUP, please refer to the following links:

https://x.com/market_beggar/status/1876502016740266199

https://x.com/market_beggar/status/1881546963583459419

For the analysis logic of Realized Profit, please refer to the following links:

https://x.com/market_beggar/status/1882645089786450368

This week we take a brief look at the current state of RUP.

It can be seen that during the past two months of volatility, the price trend was relatively flat, but the RUP showed a clear decline (the red box area on the right side of the figure).

The decline in RUP is a prerequisite for divergence, and there is only one reason for this to happen: "the distribution of low-cost chips" (for a detailed explanation of the principle, please refer to the link above).

Currently, BTC is less than 4% away from its previous high. As I have repeatedly emphasized before: once a new high appears, as long as it does not rush to an extremely high position in one go, the divergence after the RUP new high is almost a very high probability event‼ ️

In addition, I saw a rather special signal on Realized Profit this week.

Due to space limitations, I will publish a separate post explanation tomorrow (7/7).

3) US capital sentiment monitoring chart

For a detailed description of the US capital sentiment chart, please refer to the previously released tweet:

https://x.com/market_beggar/status/1937467166217170962

This week's rise did not simultaneously drive the purple curve representing the sentiment of US funds. The purple line is still hovering near the 0 axis, indicating that the sentiment of US funds has not yet recovered. As long as the purple line does not rise rapidly with the price, the "US capital divergence signal" I released on June 10 will still be valid:

https://x.com/market_beggar/status/1932258519253958854

It’s still the same old saying: after the new high, it’s time to decide the winner. Will US funds lead the way back to the market after the new high?

Or will it repeat the two top scenarios at the beginning of the year and in 2021 - the peak of "selling to Asians"? Please place your bets, and the gambling game will begin.

4) Conclusion

📝Key points:

1️⃣ URPD: The distribution rate has increased, and the large accumulation area has expanded slightly, but it is still highly concentrated

2️⃣ RUP: Divergence is almost certain, Realized Profit update will be released tomorrow

3️⃣ US capital sentiment: It has not recovered with the price increase, indicating that the puller is not US capital

In the comment section, I will attach all the analysis articles related to the "Second Escape from the Top" during this period for your study and reference.

As usual, I will answer all your questions. I wish you all a happy weekend🍡

Data source: Mr. Berg

4. Macroeconomic influence and event-driven

- June 28, 2025: EU CSRD/CSDDD implementation progress

The European Commission issued additional guidance on the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD), clarifying the reporting template for small and medium-sized enterprises and further reducing the compliance burden. The guidance focuses on simplifying non-financial disclosure requirements. European markets reacted mildly, with the STOXX 600 index rising 0.3%, led by green energy and technology sectors.

- 30 June 2025: ESMA publishes MiCA market abuse guidance

The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) issued the final guidance on preventing market abuse under the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA), requiring digital asset service providers to strengthen transaction monitoring and compliance. Crypto compliance technology stocks rose by an average of 15%, reflecting the increased demand for regulatory technology. Bitcoin and Ethereum prices remained stable, with no significant market disturbances.

- July 1, 2025: CFTC extends swap dealer regulatory review

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced an extension of the public consultation period for swap dealer regulation, focusing on exemptions from action for non-U.S. entities. This move provides continued regulatory clarity for the derivatives market, and CME Group’s average daily volume for interest rate futures increased 4% week-on-week.

- July 2-3, 2025: The People's Bank of China continues to support consumption

The People's Bank of China and the Ministry of Commerce reiterated their commitment to consumer stimulus measures on June 24-25, announcing a targeted injection of 50 billion yuan in liquidity to support consumer credit. China's retail and consumer goods sector rose 1.8%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar stabilized around 7.09.

- July 4, 2025: Bank of Japan discusses interest rate path

The Bank of Japan released the supplementary minutes of its June meeting. Some policymakers were concerned that if the interest rate remained at 0.5%, the pressure on the yen to depreciate would increase. The discussion suggested that if inflation exceeded 2.5%, interest rates might be raised in the third quarter of 2025. The yen appreciated 0.4% against the dollar, and the Nikkei 225 index fell 0.9% as exporters worried about a stronger exchange rate.

- July 6, 2025: US tariff policy uncertainty continues

The 90-day tariff suspension on allies and China will expire on July 9. As of July 6, the U.S. Trade Representative has not issued an official statement, and the market remains cautious. The U.S. Industrial and Manufacturing ETF fell 0.5%, and global shipping stocks fell 0.7%, reflecting concerns about supply chain impacts.

5. Leverage risk range and liquidation hotspots

5.1 Introduction to the Liquidation Map

The liquidation map is like a mine map of the market, clearly marking the price points at which a large number of leveraged orders will be forced to close.

The brighter the area on the chart, the larger the accumulated liquidation amount. These areas act like "magnets" and attract prices to move toward them to obtain liquidity. Therefore, traders can use it to quickly determine the potential target price of the market and assess whether the risk of falling "killing longs" or rising "squeezing shorts" is higher. Therefore, we will use multiple data sources below to provide an overview of market expectations for this week.

5.2 Exchange Clearing Chart

Figure: Liquidation column heights of various exchanges (Binance, OKX, Bybit) showing concentration at different price levels

🔻 The left side (below) has a lot of pressure on long order liquidation

- Liquidation columns are mainly concentrated between $102,000 and $106,500

- This area is the leveraged long concentration area, among which Bybit (light blue) and OKX (orange) account for a relatively high proportion

- The height of the liquidation column is obviously stacked. If the price drops to around $104,000, it may trigger a large number of forced liquidations, leading to a chain reaction of price declines

🔺 The short position liquidation pressure on the right (above) is expanding but still dispersed

- Liquidation columns are distributed between $110,000 and $114,000

- The cumulative short position liquidation intensity (green line) has increased significantly, but the overall distribution of the bar chart is relatively sporadic

- Indicates that short positions are dispersed, there is a lack of concentrated liquidation momentum on the upper side, and the short-term short squeeze is limited

📍 Current Price: $108,839

- The price is in the "central zone" of liquidation pressure on both sides. Both the upper short orders and the lower long orders have potential liquidation areas, but the lower ones are more concentrated.

✅ Summary:

- Short-term support observation: $106,000, $104,000 liquidation zone, if lost, it may trigger a waterfall-style liquidation decline

- Short-term resistance observation: $110,000 ~ $111,500 short position, a breakthrough requires large volume to have a chance to trigger a short squeeze

- The current risk is neutral and slightly bearish. It is recommended to pay close attention to the price changes and volume performance in the $106k~$110k range.

5.3 Key Observations of Liquidation Heat Map

1. The obvious short order liquidation concentration area is between $110,500 and $111,100

- The brightest and most horizontally extended yellow-green area in the figure is concentrated at this price, indicating that a large number of highly leveraged short orders are deployed here.

- This area is the bearish pressure area formed when the price rose sharply from the evening of July 3 to the early morning of July 4.

- If the price successfully breaks through $111,500, it may trigger a chain of short stop losses to push the market further up.

2. The short-term long and short attack and defense core area is $107,000 ~ $109,500

- Multiple high-brightness horizontal lines appear in this area, indicating that the price has been tested and liquidated many times and is oscillating back and forth.

- It is the weekend consolidation range, which is the main battlefield for both long and short sides in the near term, with short-term pressure and support interlaced and concentrated.

- If there is no effective breakthrough with large volume, the market will continue to fluctuate and wait for a direction to be chosen.

3. The lower support band is concentrated at $105,000 ~ $107,000

- This area is the starting point of the rapid rebound after falling below $107,000, and there was a short period of strong buying intervention.

- Although the liquidation intensity is not as obvious as the above, it is a recent short-term profit zone and is expected to provide support in the short term.

- If the price drops to this area again, attention should be paid to whether there is buying defense or a false decline and real pull-up.

✅ Summary:

- The price rose in the first half of this week, and then entered a period of shock correction in the second half of the week. The current price is about $108,900;

- The upper $110.5k~$111.5k short order liquidation concentration area is the key pressure, and a breakthrough will open up new highs;

- The short-term support below is at $105k~$107k. If it falls below, it may test the lower range;

- It is still in the middle of the short position pressure zone. We need to observe whether it can effectively stand above $109k to continue the upward trend.

5.4 Summary

6. Weekly report conclusion

1. Market Bias

2. Suitable transaction types at this stage

3. Short, medium and long-term operation suggestions

4. Focus and reminders

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