Bitcoin's rise was blocked at $112,000. Arthur Hayes warned that the market may go sideways or fall slightly before the end of August | HashKey Trading Time

1. Market Observation

The "big and beautiful" tax cut bill pushed by the Trump administration passed in the House of Representatives and is now awaiting Trump's signature. The White House stated that Trump will sign the bill at 5 AM Beijing time on July 5th. This massive bill will fund Trump's domestic agenda while potentially causing millions of Americans to lose health insurance. Despite the Congressional Budget Office warning that this will increase US debt by $3.4 trillion and Moody's downgrading the US credit rating, the strong June non-farm employment data (adding 147,000 jobs and reducing unemployment to 4.1%) provided a buffer for policy implementation. This better-than-expected employment report caused interest rate futures traders to abandon July rate cut bets, with the market's expectation of a September Fed rate cut dropping from 98% to 80%.

However, Goldman Sachs analyst George Cole's team holds the opposite view. In their latest report, they lowered the yield predictions for US Treasury bonds across all maturities (reducing the 10-year target from 4.50% to 4.20%) and maintain that the Fed will cut rates consecutively in September, October, and December. They believe job growth primarily depends on local government hiring and weak labor participation rates. Regarding tariff policies, Trump will begin sending letters to relevant countries on July 4th, unilaterally setting tariff rates, with 10-12 countries expected to receive notifications that day. The plan is to impose tariffs ranging from 60%-70% and 10%-20% on different countries, with payments to begin from August 1st, and July 9th set as the final negotiation deadline.

Amid market volatility, the crypto industry's compliance process is also accelerating. HashKey Group's chief analyst Jeffrey Ding noted that Circle's recent application for a US national trust bank license is a landmark event in the industry. He pointed out that USDC, one of only two stablecoins with issuance exceeding $10 billion, could solidify its institutional market position, attract more corporate customers, and expand revenue sources if it becomes the first federally regulated issuer. Circle's bank establishment will set a compliance benchmark for US stablecoin regulation, promote industry standardization, and help integrate stablecoins into anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing systems, enhancing international competitiveness and attracting traditional financial institutions.

In this macroeconomic context, the Bitcoin market is particularly sensitive. After the better-than-expected non-farm employment data was released, Bitcoin prices were briefly boosted, momentarily approaching the key psychological level of $110,000, but the bullish momentum could not be sustained. Nevertheless, multiple analysts remain strongly optimistic about Bitcoin's medium to long-term prospects. Markus Thielen, research director at 10x Research, believes Bitcoin could rise to $116,000 by month-end, driven by spot ETF fund inflows, Fed policy uncertainty, and decreased exchange supply. Further, analyst CryptoBoss projected target prices of $112,000 and $135,000. Analyst Crypto Auris predicts Bitcoin prices could rise to $170,000 based on the global M2 money supply reaching a historical high, with the 2025 year-end prediction range commonly between $150,000 and $200,000.

However, this optimism is constrained by short-term risks. The most direct resistance is at $112,000, with trader Byzantine General noting significant sell orders near this price. Cointelegraph's analysis also emphasizes bearish divergence across multiple timeframes when prices approached $110,500, with support targets between $106,000 and $107,500 if unable to break through. Arthur Hayes also issued a short-term warning, suggesting that Trump's "big and beautiful" bill might cause temporary US dollar liquidity contraction, potentially driving Bitcoin prices to the $90,000-$95,000 range. If the impact is limited, Bitcoin might hover around $100,000 but struggle to break the $112,000 high. He anticipates the market may remain sideways or slightly decline before Fed Chair Powell's speech in late August, with potential recovery and rise in early September.

In the Altcoin market, while some tokens have seen slight increases recently, most are still declining. Notably, the $PENGU token has maintained high trading volumes, with prices rising continuously for a week, showing a weekly increase of nearly 80%. Several quality meme coins have emerged on the Solana chain in the past two days. The $LuckyCoin, related to feng shui, rose 814% in the past 24 hours, reaching a market cap of $6.4 million. $invest, a dog-themed token, saw a 24-hour increase of 140% with a market cap of $7.2 million. On the Cooking.city platform supported by Jump Crypto, $DBC's market cap briefly peaked at $36.9 million, now falling to $8.7 million but still showing a 24-hour increase of over 30,000%. Additionally, $KIRBY, supported by Jupiter's founder, reached a maximum market cap of $3.5 million.

This article is supported by HashKey, HashKey Exchange is the largest licensed virtual asset exchange in Hong Kong and the most trusted crypto asset fiat gateway in Asia. Committed to defining new benchmarks for virtual asset exchanges in compliance, fund safety, and platform protection.