On July 4th, according to official website data, the probability of "Musk creating a new party before the end of this year" on Polymarket was 42%; on Kalshi, the probability of "Musk creating a new party this year" was currently reported at 35%.
Musk previously stated on July 1st that if the "Beautiful Act" passes, he would establish a new party in the United States the next day. Trump's "Beautiful Act" passed in the House of Representatives this morning and will be signed at 5 AM on Saturday.
Additionally, Musk launched a poll on social media on June 6th asking: "Is it time to create a new party in the United States that truly represents the middle 80% of the population?" The voting results showed that 5,630,775 users participated, with 80.4% of users choosing to support.
