Author: arndxt
Translated by: Yuliya, PANews
Against the backdrop of generally low market sentiment and unclear direction, the author makes a bold and critical assertion about the Altcoin market: "We may be in the final quiet period before the next 'Altcoin season' breaks out." Unlike a universal rally, the future market will be driven by core narratives such as ETFs, real yield, and institutional adoption. Below is the original text, compiled by PANews.
We may be at a critical turning point - the most grinding period in the market cycle. At this stage, 99% of market participants choose to wait and see due to exhaustion or hesitation, while only 1% quietly completes a trading layout that could affect their entire life.
Altcoin Season Signals Emerge
Just last week, BTC hit a historical monthly closing price, but its market dominance began to decline. Meanwhile, whales quietly absorbed over 1 million ETH in a single day, equivalent to about $3 billion, and BTC balance on exchanges has dropped to a multi-year low.
Retail investors are still waiting and skeptical. Sentiment indicators are at a low point - precisely the most ideal market state for early entrants.
Everything is brewing at this moment.
Currently, the Altcoin speculation index is still below 20%, and the ETH/BTC pair has finally recorded its first weekly green candle in multiple weeks. The Solana ETF approval is a done deal. On-chain capital rotation has quietly begun, with funds subtly flowing towards DeFi, real-world assets (RWA), and reStaking areas that align with market narratives.
But this is not 2021, and that "everyone takes off" scenario will not be repeated.
The upcoming market will be more selective and deeply driven by narratives. Capital is flowing towards real yield, cross-chain abstract infrastructure, and ETF structured assets with staking rewards mechanisms.
If you have been quietly accumulating, this is your signal.
4. Monetization and Programmability of Data Infrastructure
Block space is no longer the bottleneck; data latency and composability are. Projects like Shelby and Dynamic aim to provide monetizable real-time read/write infrastructure for Web3 developers.
- Shelby: Developed by Aptos and Jump, capable of sub-second reads, dynamic content, and monetizable data access, with the goal of replacing static cold storage with real-time streaming computation.
- ZKsync's Airbender module can generate zkVM proofs in 35 seconds at a cost of only $0.0001, representing a 6-fold improvement in both speed and cost compared to previous solutions.
- Dynamic approaches from the wallet interaction layer, focusing on solving friction in wallet switching and user onboarding. Its infrastructure supports over 20 million users and 500+ wallets, achieving payment composability across multiple application scenarios.
This trend is giving rise to a new middleware business model: providing developers with low-latency, chain-agnostic data access services with on-demand pricing, potentially introducing an AWS-style pricing model and developer tiers based on latency.
5. Institutional Credit Infrastructure and RWA Integration
On-chain lending is moving towards institutionalization, with auto-renewing credit lines, standby floating rates, and leveraged RWA strategies becoming the focus.
- Tenor Finance's integration with Morpho V2 demonstrates the maturity of on-chain credit. Their new fixed-rate loan product features auto-renewal and standby logic, providing tools similar to those commonly used in TradFi for institutional users.
- Morpho also previewed a leveraged RWA strategy based on Apollo Global's ACRED fund, signaling a future trend of building high-yield, compliant on-chain vaults suitable for institutional liquidity.
- Euler Prime is driving stablecoin liquidity improvement through targeted incentives, optimizing yield efficiency for market makers and vault managers seeking predictable returns.
We are gradually approaching on-chain prime brokerage, with compliance-ready, structured fixed-income products set to lead the next wave of growth. However, RWA strategies require high-fidelity oracles and robust redemption logic. Any off-chain mismatch could trigger large-scale de-pegging or margin call risks.
6. Airdrop Economy and Incentivized Mining
Airdrops remain the primary user acquisition strategy, despite continuously declining user retention data.
Spark's SNAPS activity, Aethir's Cloud Drop 2.0, and KiiChain's ORO testnet activity continue the familiar formula: point systems, task mechanisms, and gamified interactions to attract attention.
However, data shows that only about 15% of total value remains after two weeks of airdrops. Therefore, projects are forced to offer higher point multipliers (up to 30x for LPs) or bind additional benefits (governance rights, yield enhancement) to attract users.
Platforms like Cookie.fun attempt to reduce Sybil attacks through social or behavioral verification, but mining whales still circumvent restrictions by splitting wallets and using multi-signature structures.
Projects seeking long-term liquidity must shift towards retention-oriented incentive mechanisms, such as veNFT locking, time-weighted reward mechanisms, or reStaking access rights, rather than relying solely on speculative point acquisition.
Macro Narrative and Investment Framework
Despite potential severe impacts from geopolitical turbulence, structural buyers continue to absorb each downturn. Altcoins will not see a 2021-style "universal rally"; instead, narratives with tangible catalysts (such as ETFs, real yield, exchange distribution channels) will draw attention away from pure MEME speculation.
[The rest of the translation follows the same professional and precise approach, maintaining the technical and financial terminology as specified in the initial instructions.]6. New Issuance Projects and Structural Positive Factors
- Robinhood Enters L2: Robinhood chooses Arbitrum Orbit as its L2 solution and promotes the development of tokenized stocks. This strengthens the "exchange chain" theory pioneered by Coinbase's Base. Robinhood may leverage its millions of users to drive Ethereum L2 user activity, potentially sparking a wave of interest during the typically slow summer trading period.
- The recent token prices of $H (Humanity Protocol) and $SAHARA (Sahara AI) indicate that even with significant initial sell-offs, tokens can still receive positive market buying in secondary trading if the team has a credible plan and verifiable roadmap.
7. Q3 2025 Investment Framework
- Core Position: Continue to heavily allocate BTC until ETF outflows significantly exceed inflows (which has not yet occurred).
- Beta Rotation: Continue to build SOL positions below $160 as an ETF alternative, and pair with $JTO and $MNDE to potentially enhance yields.
- Fundamental DeFi Portfolio: Equal-weight allocation of $SYRUP, $LQTY, $EUL, $FLUID; rotate profits to underperforming projects when one project stands out.
- Speculative Positions: Limit meme coin risk exposure to within 5% of total net asset value; treat each meme coin on Binance perpetual contracts as a weekly option trade—using small costs to seek high returns, with strict stop-loss settings.
- Event-Driven: Track Robinhood L2 milestone events; pre-position in Arbitrum ecosystem tokens related to user growth catalysts.
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