Standard Chartered Bank's latest report has once again raised the short and long-term prospects of BTC: estimating a breakthrough of $135,000 in the third quarter of 2025, challenging $200,000 by year-end, and extending to $500,000 by 2028. With BTC currently hovering around $100,000, the gap is significant, raising market questions: If the "four-year halving" is no longer the main theme, who will take over?
ETF Capital Inflow Becomes the New Protagonist
The report points out that spot ETFs have become a "black hole" for BTC. K33 research shows that ETF monthly net inflows can explain 80% of monthly returns (R² ≈ 0.80). Since the first spot ETFs were approved in the US, cumulative inflows have reached approximately 100,000 BTC, injecting unprecedented liquidity and lowering volatility, with data showing that capital curves almost synchronously rise with prices.
Another driving force comes from listed companies. Statistics show that enterprises collectively hold about 855,000 BTC, accounting for 4% of total supply. In the second quarter of this year, they net added 131,000 BTC, though many companies acquired positions through "stock swaps" without immediately generating buying pressure. Standard Chartered Bank warns that if prices drop sharply, high-leverage positions might trigger forced liquidation, and when prices reach $100,000, experienced investors' profit-taking could weaken buying sentiment, with potential pullback and consolidation from late Q3 to early Q4.
Halving Effect Diminishes, Demand Side Takes Over
After the past three halvings, BTC rose 7,000%, 291%, and 541% in the following 12 months, but only 43% in 2024. The marginal impact of supply shock is declining, with demand-side factors—especially institutional funds, global liquidity, and regulatory environment—becoming the core pricing mechanism. BTC's annualized inflation rate is now lower than gold, further solidifying the "digital gold" narrative.
Standard Chartered Bank's high price call symbolizes the market's belief that BTC is entering an institutional pricing era. Investors seeking to maintain footing during bull and bear transitions should embrace the upside potential brought by ETFs and corporate additions, while cautiously facing potential short-term volatility from high leverage and profit-taking.
