Author: Jose Antonio Lanz
Original Title: Moon or Doom: Will Bitcoin See Fireworks on July 4?
Compiled and Organized by: BitpushNews
Can Bitcoin price stabilize above the $108,000 mark before the end of this week? This is the question thrown to traders by the prediction platform Myriad. As the deadline approaches, traders are facing a critical moment of choice.
Just yesterday, when Bitcoin was trading around $107,640, breaking this level seemed almost certain. At that time, only a 0.33% increase (360 dollars) was needed to achieve the target, and the betting ratio on the Myriad platform was basically balanced, with the bearish side leading by a slim 50.8% margin.
However, the situation changed dramatically today. As Bitcoin fell back to the key level of $106,000 (a price point to focus on in July), the odds on the Myriad platform underwent a dramatic change. Predictors now believe there is a 69% probability that Bitcoin will not break through $108,000 before July 4, suggesting the week may end on a bearish note.
So, what mysteries does the chart data reveal about Bitcoin's trend?
Bitcoin Price: Signals Revealed by the Chart
When Bitcoin hovers below the psychological level of $108,000, the core issue is not whether the price can touch that point, but whether it can close firmly above it - there is an essential difference between the two.
By analyzing the 4-hour K-line chart, it can be found that in the 30 trading periods since June 25, Bitcoin has only closed above $108,000 three times. More notably, after June 9, Bitcoin has not achieved a daily closing breakthrough of this level - historically, Bitcoin has only closed above this threshold 8 times.
However, for intraday traders, the 4-hour technical analysis can provide key insights for this short-term prediction:
From a purely technical perspective, Bitcoin is facing a typical dilemma of being "within reach yet unattainable". The 4-hour chart shows that attempts to break through the $107,500-$108,000 range have repeatedly been met with selling pressure. These failed breakthrough attempts have left obvious upper shadows on the K-lines, indicating that buyers' attempts to push prices higher have been repeatedly intercepted by sellers at resistance levels.
This proximity is highly deceptive. Although in the cryptocurrency market where daily volatility often reaches 3-5%, a 2% increase might seem insignificant, the repeated failure to break through this key level suggests deeper market mechanisms. For position traders, effectively breaking this resistance would mean that bulls have sufficient momentum to push prices to new highs in the short term.
The Average Directional Index (ADX) currently reads 17, far below the 25 threshold required to confirm trend strength. This weak reading indicates that Bitcoin is in a trendless fluctuation state, which is particularly unfavorable when trying to break through a key resistance level. A low ADX environment typically leads to price oscillation between support and resistance levels, rather than achieving a decisive breakthrough.
Specifically to the current trend, Bitcoin has been oscillating in the $107,000-$108,000 range since June 25: sometimes below this level, with fewer breakthroughs, but always returning to the horizontal channel, which confirms the judgment of a lack of a clear short-term trend and validates the accuracy of the ADX indicator.
The squeeze momentum indicator shows that the market is brewing bearish momentum, indicating that the downward trend dominates in a shorter cycle. This bearish pressure is directly contrary to the bullish momentum needed to break through $108,000. In short, traders currently seem more inclined to believe the market will see a bearish pullback rather than continue the long-term upward trend.
However, one technical indicator still retains a glimmer of hope: the Exponential Moving Average (EMA). This indicator guides trading decisions by calculating the average price over a specific period. Continuing to observe the 4-hour chart, the 50-period EMA remains above the 200-period EMA, maintaining a bullish "golden cross" structure. This arrangement suggests that although short-term momentum has weakened, the overall trend remains upward.
However, the price has fallen below the 50-period EMA, showing short-term bearish pressure.
Another valuable indicator is the volume distribution in the visible range. The current price is trading above the control point, which is usually a bullish signal. But since the price is also near the resistance level and lacks momentum, a pullback (i.e., "mean reversion") is more likely.
The volume distribution chart can highlight the most active trading price areas - these areas often form natural support or resistance because traders typically set take-profit or stop-loss orders here. For example, when you establish a position at a certain price, you might set a stop-loss at the same level to control risk.
Although the current price is in the buying zone for most traders (slightly bullish), the lack of directional clarity is not enough to judge market sentiment.
Weekend Effect
A key factor often overlooked is that July 4 falls on a Friday, and the prediction deadline is at 23:59 UTC (already early Saturday morning for most global markets).
Weekend trading is typically characterized by reduced institutional participation, overall volume contraction, and widening bid-ask spreads, with essentially only cryptocurrency "die-hards" remaining active, as this market never sleeps.
This environment makes sustained breakthrough of key resistance levels more difficult - because there is simply not enough buying volume to absorb selling pressure.
Conclusion: Easy to Touch the Top, Hard to Hold
Strictly based on chart analysis, the probability of Bitcoin reaching at least $108,000 before the July 4 deadline remains high - after all, it only requires less than a 2% increase. But to close firmly above this level? Currently, the hope seems slim. The reasons are as follows:
Historical Rejection Rate: The chart shows that at least 4-5 attempts to break through this area have failed, forming a statistical precedent.
Momentum Divergence: Although the price is near the high point, momentum indicators (RSI, ADX) show weakening power - a typical top divergence pattern.
Time Decay: As the deadline approaches and momentum dissipates, the probability of success decreases with each hour of failure to break through.
Volume Requirements: Breaking through and holding a new price level requires sustained volume increase, but the weak ADX reading indicates insufficient volume.
Weekend Liquidity Exhaustion: The deadline coincides with the key moment of institutional capital withdrawal.
Of course, this analysis is premised on the market environment remaining unchanged. But this is the cryptocurrency market, where anything is possible. When Bitcoin is just 0.33% away from the $108,000 target, even a single large order, political statement, whale movement, or social media sentiment can completely change the outcome. Although the chart suggests the resistance level may hold, in the face of such a small difference, the predictive power of traditional technical analysis inevitably suffers.
Key Price Levels:
Immediate Resistance: $108,000 (Prediction Target)
Key Support: $105,000 (Psychological Level)
Next Resistance After Breakthrough: $110,000 (Previous High Area)
For prediction market participants, this technical pattern suggests a binary result leaning towards failure - similar to opening an over-leveraged long position. But as the deadline approaches, external catalysts are likely to play a decisive role. It is recommended to closely monitor volume growth and early signals of sustained breakthrough, such as ADX breaking above 20, while being alert to sudden news that might temporarily invalidate technical analysis.
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