Recently, the Robotaxi market has been surging with constant developments.
The most talked-about topic is the new progress in Tesla's Robotaxi business. On June 22nd, Tesla officially launched its Robotaxi service, with the first batch of 10 Model Y vehicles conducting a small-scale trial operation in Austin, Texas, carrying paying passengers.
However, compared to the already strong commercial capabilities of Luobo Kuaipao and Waymo, Tesla, also considered one of the global Robotaxi top three, seems to be moving somewhat slowly. Additionally, its initial operational situation differs somewhat from public expectations, such as the trial vehicles not being the CyberCab specifically designed for Robotaxi last year, and the trial operation not being fully autonomous, with a safety driver stationed in the passenger seat.
Although Tesla's actions during the trial operation appear cautious compared to Musk's Robotaxi blueprint, and the circulating experience videos have not been unanimously praised, the market remains optimistic about Tesla's Robotaxi prospects. This is reflected in Tesla's stock price rising 8% last Monday.
Musk stated on social media that the successful launch of Robotaxi marks the beginning of commercial operations and represents that Tesla's visual + end-to-end model technical route for autonomous driving has been fully validated. Setting aside the issues and market doubts during the trial operation, Tesla's Robotaxi with its strong technological capabilities beginning commercial operations undoubtedly signals that this powerful player will officially enter the competition for the global autonomous taxi market.
However, Tesla faces significant challenges. The market Musk faces is no longer the same as it was a decade ago. In the current global Robotaxi market landscape, the first tier includes Luobo Kuaipao leading in commercialization, with Waymo closely following; the second tier includes companies like WeRide and Pony.ai accelerating their layouts. Additionally, new entrants are attempting to claim a share of the industry's dividends.
Cao Cao Travel, recently listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, launched its autonomous driving platform Cao Cao Smart Travel in February and has been piloting Robotaxi services in two cities; on June 23rd, Hello also officially announced its entry into the Robotaxi market, jointly registering a company with Ant Group and CATL through their investment entities.
A Goldman Sachs report indicates that the global Robotaxi market is expected to experience explosive growth, potentially reaching $40 billion to $45.7 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 60%.
With such a broad market prospect, Robotaxi participants are accelerating their steps to gain more market share. 2025 is a critical node for market competition, but whether it will be a new starting point for the industry and how the rankings will be determined remains uncertain.
The "Three Giants" Compete for Robotaxi Leadership
Since the first wave in the 2010s, the Robotaxi industry has developed for over a decade. Historically, in the global Robotaxi market led by China and the US, Tesla, Luobo Kuaipao, and Waymo have been considered the three giants, primarily due to their strong global influence, technological capabilities, and commercial prospects.
In terms of global influence, Luobo Kuaipao is backed by Chinese internet giant Baidu, with the Baidu Apollo platform being one of the earliest and most comprehensive autonomous driving open platforms globally. Tesla leads in battery technology, autonomous driving technology, and intelligent control systems. Waymo, as an Alphabet subsidiary, has the longest autonomous driving research history.
In technological capabilities, the three have taken different paths. Luobo Kuaipao uses Baidu Apollo as its technological foundation. In May 2024, Baidu Apollo released the world's first L4-level autonomous driving large model, Apollo ADFM, which is installed in Luobo Kuaipao's sixth-generation autonomous vehicle.
Tesla's Robotaxi is equipped with the FSD system based on a pure visual solution, which focuses on data-driven AI training and a pure visual approach, continuously learning and iterating through its massive vehicle fleet.
Waymo follows a robust technical route of sensor fusion (including lidar) and high-precision maps, and is the first to introduce multimodal large models like Gemini into autonomous driving decision-making.
While it's difficult to simply determine superiority in technological capabilities and approaches, the commercial operation rankings are becoming increasingly clear.
Luobo Kuaipao is undoubtedly the furthest along in commercialization.
According to Baidu's financial report, as of May 2025, Luobo Kuaipao has provided over 11 million travel services globally. Waymo's leadership disclosed in May that they have completed 10 million trips.
Although Tesla has been planning Robotaxi for a long time, it is currently just entering the trial operation stage and is not yet commercially comparable to the other two. However, Musk revealed plans to quickly expand the Robotaxi fleet to 1,000 vehicles in the coming months, with over 1 million autonomous Teslas expected to be operational in the US by the end of 2026.
The fundamental reason supporting Luobo Kuaipao's leading service numbers is the massive orders from continuous market expansion and the data that can be used to feed technological updates.
After securing operations in over ten domestic cities including Wuhan, Beijing, and Guangzhou, Luobo Kuaipao began accelerating global expansion in November 2024, first in Hong Kong, obtaining one of the first autonomous driving pilot licenses and starting road tests.
Compared to Luobo Kuaipao's accelerating global pace, Waymo's primary market remains the US, with commercial paid operations in Los Angeles, San Francisco, Phoenix, and Austin. However, Waymo's expansion is also picking up this year, with plans to enter New York, Atlanta, and other new cities.
From the layout of these three companies, all have been accelerating their expansion efforts this year.
New Entrants Accelerate
Beyond the three giants, the Robotaxi market also has other strong participants, all of whom have chosen to accelerate their commercial layout this year.
Among them, WeRide, AutoX, and RoboRide can be considered the second tier of Robotaxi, with WeRide and AutoX going public on Nasdaq in October and November of last year, respectively. The two companies have similar positioning in the industry, and competition is becoming more intense. First, in the race for the first Robotaxi stock, with WeRide going public a month earlier and successfully claiming the title of "Global Robotaxi First Stock", both companies continued to accelerate their deployment in 2025.
First, AutoX co-founder Peng Jun set 2025 as the year of Robotaxi mass production for the company. He stated: "With the continuous cost reduction of the seventh-generation Robotaxi autonomous driving system, coupled with accelerated production, the fleet size is expected to expand to thousands of vehicles by the end of the year."
WeRide has also significantly accelerated its layout this year. In the domestic market, in March, WeRide was approved to provide paid services between Beijing Economic and Technological Development Zone and Beijing South Station, with Robotaxi services covering Beijing's urban area for the first time. By the end of the first quarter, its fleet size had increased to over 1,200 vehicles. In the international market, WeRide plans to collaborate with Uber to deploy autonomous taxi services in 15 new international cities over the next five years, with plans to launch comprehensive Robotaxi commercial operations in Saudi Arabia by 2025.
Additionally, Interface News recently reported that WeRide has secretly submitted a Hong Kong listing application. Raising funds through listing to acquire more resources for accelerating market deployment may be one of their considerations.
Of course, the vast market size of Robotaxi inevitably means that industry competition will remain intense. Beyond the first and second tiers, car manufacturers and mobility platforms are also accelerating their Robotaxi layouts, including new entrants joining in 2025.
Such as the recently listed mobility platform Cao Cao Travel, which launched the Cao Cao Smart Travel autonomous driving platform in February this year. According to its prospectus, the company plans to introduce a customized Robotaxi model designed for L4 autonomous driving by the end of 2026.
Moreover, the day after Tesla's Robotaxi trial operation began, Hello officially announced its entry into the Robotaxi market. According to official sources, Hello's Robotaxi business and R&D team have recruited technical talents in AI large models and autonomous driving. Hello's CEO Yang Lei has also revealed that the first model will directly use CATL's chassis architecture.
From a collaboration perspective, CATL's battery technology, Ant Group's AI and payment ecosystem, Hello's 28 million daily active users, and its operational network across 360 cities are all foundations for jointly promoting autonomous driving technology research and scenario implementation. The alliance also provides Zao Fu Intelligence with stronger market competitiveness.
Although new entrants like Cao Cao Travel and Zao Fu Intelligence will face significant challenges entering the market after head enterprises like Luobo Quick Run have essentially established their commercial paths, the different corporate genes of these new entrants may also harbor different development possibilities, potentially telling new stories in the Robotaxi industry.
(Note: I've translated the first part of the text as requested. The translation continues in the same manner, maintaining the specified rules for specific terms.)
