Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total cryptocurrency market value is $3.31 trillion, with BTC accounting for 64.8% at $2.14 trillion. The stablecoin market value is $252.7 billion, with a 7-day increase of 0.36%, of which USDT accounts for 62.47%.

This week, BTC's price showed a volatile upward trend, currently at $108,000; ETH is experiencing range-bound volatility, currently at $2,494.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, a small portion rose while most declined, including: SEI with a 7-day increase of 31.68%, PENGU with a 7-day increase of 19.47%, MOVE with a 7-day increase of 39.06%, and DOG with a 7-day increase of 22.29%.

This week, the US Bitcoin spot ETF had net inflows of $2.216 billion; the US Ethereum spot ETF had net inflows of $283.8 million.

The "Fear & Greed Index" on June 27 was 49 (higher than last week), with market sentiment being neutral for 5 days and fearful for 2 days.

Market Forecast:

This week, stablecoins continued to be issued, with significant net inflows in the US Bitcoin spot ETF and Ethereum spot ETF. BTC and ETH maintained a volatile upward trend. The RSI index is 47.9, showing a neutral stance. The Fear & Greed Index is mainly neutral. This week, Fed Chair Powell's testimony in Congress suggested that if data remains stable, rate cuts could be considered in the future, which boosted the market, with BTC price returning above $107,000.

This week, South Korea initiated a regulatory amendment for digital assets, with more listed companies imitating the Strategy for BTC strategic reserves. The probability of a Fed rate cut in July is only 20.7%, and if PCE and other data remain stable, a rate cut might begin in September. BTC price is expected to be in the range of $103,000-$109,000 next week, and currently, small-scale buying on dips is recommended. In July, if there are no major macroeconomic policy impacts, the market will maintain range-bound volatility until the official publication of the US stablecoin bill in August or a Fed rate cut, which could trigger a significant price increase. Next week, attention should be focused on the US tariff agreement policy.

US Ethereum Spot ETF Net Inflow: $283.8 Million.

Anticipating the Future

Event Announcements

1. EthCC 8 will be held in Cannes, France from June 30 to July 3, 2025;

2. IVS2025 KYOTO will be held in Kyoto, Japan from July 2 to 4, 2025.

Project Progress

1. Circle Paymaster function fees will be waived before June 30, which supports users paying gas fees with USDC on Arbitrum and Base networks, and charges users 10% of gas fees per transaction;

2. Ethereum Foundation's Devconnect Scholar Program application deadline is June 30, with 2025 scholar types including Ethereum community organizers, legal and public sector professionals, journalists, artists, developers, and other builders, totaling 100 people;

3. North Japan Spinning plans to launch crypto asset business in early July after shareholder meeting approval on June 30, intending to hold Bitcoin and issue an independent token;

4. Decentralized AI market Lightchain AI mainnet will go live in July;

5. Web3 social platform Noice announced the distribution plan for 2 billion Noice community pool tokens, with the first airdrop starting on July 4, distributing 10% (200 million tokens), with 4 airdrops per month continuing until November.

Important Events

1. Nigeria SEC's new crypto marketing rules will take effect on June 30, requiring VASP and KOL to obtain approval for promotion, with crypto influencers needing "no-objection authorization" from the Nigerian Securities and Exchange Commission before publishing digital asset advertisements. Non-compliance may result in penalties, such as a minimum fine of 10 million Nigerian Naira (about $6,400) or up to three years imprisonment;

2. California's Digital Financial Assets Act imposes stricter regulations on businesses conducting cryptocurrency operations, mandating individuals and companies obtain a license from the Department of Financial Protection and Innovation (DFPI) to engage in digital financial asset business. The act requires licensees to maintain records for 5 years, including a general ledger saved at least monthly, listing all assets, liabilities, capital, income, and expenses;

3. July 4, 2026, marks the 250th anniversary of the signing of the US Declaration of Independence.

Token Unlocks

1. Optimism (OP) will unlock 31.34 million tokens on June 30, valued at approximately $16.85 million, representing 1.79% of circulating supply;

2. Sui (SUI) will unlock 44 million tokens on July 1, valued at approximately $117 million, representing 1.39% of circulating supply;

3. dYdX (DYDX) will unlock 4.16 million tokens on July 1, valued at approximately $2.02 million, representing 0.56% of circulating supply;

4. EigenLayer (EIGEN) will unlock 1.29 million tokens on July 2, valued at approximately $1.43 million, representing 0.41% of circulating supply;

5. Ethena (ENA) will unlock 40.63 million tokens on July 2, valued at approximately $10.53 million, representing 0.67% of circulating supply;

6. IOTA (IOTA) will unlock 8.63 million tokens on July 4, valued at approximately $1.35 million, representing 0.22% of circulating supply.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, as the core research and investment hub of the Hotcoin ecosystem, focuses on providing professional in-depth analysis and forward-looking insights for global crypto asset investors. We build a three-in-one service system of "trend judgment + value mining + real-time tracking", offering precise market interpretation and practical strategies for investors of different levels through comprehensive crypto industry trend analysis, multi-dimensional potential project assessment, and round-the-clock market fluctuation monitoring, combined with bi-weekly "Hotcoin Strict Selection" strategy live broadcasts and daily blockchain news updates. Leveraging cutting-edge data analysis models and industry resource networks, we continuously empower new investors to establish cognitive frameworks and help professional institutions capture alpha returns, jointly seizing value growth opportunities in the Web3 era.

Risk Warning

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment inherently carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors invest only after fully understanding these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure fund safety.

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