BTC price prediction: long-short game under technical aspects and market sentiment

• Technical Signal Divergence: Price stabilizes above the 20-day moving average, but MACD momentum weakens, with the Bollinger Band upper rail as a short-term target
• Mixed News Sentiment: Futures market strongly hedges potential weekly pullback risks, with institutional trends providing long-term support
• Critical Time Window: Analysts warn of potential technical selling pressure if no breakthrough occurs in the next month

BTC Price Prediction

BTC Technical Analysis: Short-term Trend and Key Levels

According to BTCC financial analyst Olivia's technical analysis, BTC's current price is 107,122.06 USDT, slightly above the 20-day moving average of 105,953.83, indicating the market maintains some strength in the short term. The MACD indicator shows a negative value (-124.17), suggesting that upward momentum may be weakening, and caution is needed regarding pullback risks. The Bollinger Bands show the price is near the upper rail (110,492.67), and breaking through could further test higher resistance, while the middle rail (105,953.83) will serve as a key support.

Market Sentiment and News Dynamics: Behind BTC's Stability Above $106,000

BTCC analyst Olivia points out that the Bitcoin futures market is performing strongly, with prices holding steady above $106,000, reflecting bullish confidence. However, analysts warn of a potential "time bomb" on the weekly chart that may limit upside, with a risk of pullback if key resistance is not broken within a month. Additionally, Bakkt's suspension of registered issuance and discussions on corporate reserve strategies, along with the UAE's crypto payment proliferation, are long-term bullish factors.

Key Factors Affecting BTC Price

Bitcoin Futures Market Shows Strength, Price Holds Above $106,000

Bitcoin futures trading volume remains robust, providing market depth despite stable spot prices. Institutional and retail participation continues to inject vitality into the derivatives market, enhancing price stability and absorbing market volatility.

Glassnode data highlights the resilience of the Bitcoin futures market, with trading volumes consistently breaking $500 million since late 2023. This growth aligns with Bitcoin's surge from $30,000 to over $100,000 by mid-2025, indicating that leveraged speculative activity continues unabated even during correction periods.

The contrast between active futures activity and moderate spot market trading volumes suggests that the current market is driven by derivatives, with institutional participation maintaining an orderly trading environment.

Bitcoin ATM Operators Condemn Law Enforcement's 'Violent' Cash Seizure

Leading Bitcoin ATM operator Bitcoin Depot accuses US law enforcement of using excessive force during cash seizure from its machines. Reports indicate that Texas police forcibly extracted $32,000 from a Bitcoin ATM last week, with the company claiming this may violate legal procedures.

Chief Legal Officer Chris Ryan described the seizure as an "overreach," while COO Scott Buchanan noted that these machines require complete replacement after being forcibly opened. The incident highlights the increasingly tense relationship between crypto operators and authorities.

FBI data shows Americans lost $247 million to crypto ATM fraud in 2024, a 31% increase from 2023. The surge in fraud cases may explain law enforcement's hard-line approach, but Bitcoin Depot maintains that this method exceeds legal boundaries.

Bitcoin Weekly Chart Hides Potential 'Time Bomb', Analysts Warn Bulls Must Break Through Within a Month

Crypto chart analyst Dr Cat indicates that Bitcoin's seemingly bullish weekly Ichimoku cloud structure may hide imminent downside risks if bulls fail to achieve a decisive breakthrough in the next month. The expanding cloud (kumo) suggests bullish momentum is accumulating, but the flat baseline (Kijun Sen) contradicts bearish signals on the daily chart.

Dr Cat emphasizes: "Expanding clouds typically strengthen support, but time is of the essence," noting that the leading span (Chikou Span) must close above historical highs within 4 weeks, or risk being consumed by price—a typical bearish reversal signal. This weekly optimism versus daily warning creates a high-risk scenario for July's market.

Bakkt Submits $1 Billion Shelf Registration, Considers Bitcoin in Corporate Reserve Strategy

Bakkt Holdings has submitted a $1 billion shelf registration to the SEC, marking a significant step in institutional crypto adoption. Supported by Intercontinental Exchange, this digital asset platform seeks flexible security issuance while explicitly considering Bitcoin for corporate reserves.

According to Form S-3 disclosures, Bakkt may allocate funds to BTC and other digital assets under a revised investment policy. Market conditions, operational performance, and fund availability will determine potential crypto purchases' timing and scale. This comes as the company discloses operational losses and ongoing going concern uncertainties.

The shelf registration provides Bakkt with a financial runway to deploy funds quickly when opportunities arise. Institutional interest in Bitcoin reserve strategies continues to grow, with more public companies viewing crypto as a legitimate reserve asset.

UAE Taxis Begin Accepting Crypto Payments

The United Arab Emirates takes another step towards mainstream crypto adoption, with taxis now accepting digital currency payments. Bitcoin LFG confirms this progress, indicating increasing merchant acceptance in the region.

Although the specific cryptocurrencies accepted were not explicitly stated, this move aligns with Dubai's vision of becoming a global Web3 hub. The transportation industry's embrace of crypto payments may accelerate consumer adoption in retail and service sectors.

How high can BTC's price go?

After synthesizing technical and news data, Olivia believes BTC's short-term target price is 110,492 USDT at the upper Bollinger Band, and if breached, it may test the psychological level of $115,000. However, close attention must be paid to whether MACD can turn positive and the weekly "time bomb" risk, with $105,953 (20-day moving average) serving as the dividing line between strength and weakness.