Bitcoin (BTC) is less than 5% away from revisiting its ATH as the Federal Reserve’s September rate cut odds skyrocket to 94%. Coupled with bullish technical indicators on multiple timeframes, the BTC price appears poised for an uptrend. Is $118K the next all-time high for BTC? Let’s explore price analysis and key levels to watch.
Fed’s September Rate Cut Hits 94% Certainty
According to the CME Fed Watch Tool, there’s a 70.9% chance of a 25-basis-point cut and a 22.7% chance of a 50-basis-point rate cut. This development comes after the US President Donald Trump said he is looking to replace Federal Reserve Chairman.
Impact of Rate Cut on Bitcoin Price: A drop in the Federal target rate signals a risk-on market condition, allowing investors to borrow at a lower interest rate for investment. Therefore, a drop in interest rates often leads to a rally in the stock and crypto markets. The Bitcoin price, which is less than 5% away from its record high of $112K, is likely to kickstart an uptrend to new highs.
As the second quarter comes to a close, BTC is expected to experience high volatility due to portfolio rebalancing by fund managers and other investors. Nevertheless, the 2025 Bitcoin price prediction remains bullish for several reasons. Let’s explore technical analysis and key levels watch as fundamentals flip bullish.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
Despite the recent drawdown, the weekly Bitcoin price chart remains optimistic due to the formation of a bullish engulfing formation. This setup occurs when the subsequent up-close candlestick engulfs a down-close candlestick. It indicates a resurgence of buying pressure and demand, which can be confirmed with a relative uptick in volume.
Investors await the end of this week to form a decisive bias for the coming days. If the weekly close is at or above $105,534, it will confirm the bullish engulfing candlestick and would propel BTC higher. Coupled with the September rate cut odds hitting 94%, this would be an optimistic scenario to expect the largest cryptocurrency to break the $112 ATH and set a new one.
The daily chart shows Bitcoin price tracing a descending parallel channel. A decisive daily candlestick above the channel’s upper trend line at $107,858 will confirm a breakout. In such a case, here are the key theoretical targets to watch:
- $112,424 – This is a conservative first target, marking the halfway point.
- $116,923 – This is the theoretical target of the parallel channel and is where BTC could set up a new high.
All in all, the $117K to $118K are key levels where BTC price could erect new high.
On-chain Data Shows Record BTC Accumulation Rate
The final data point that inflates this optimistic outlook for Bitcoin price breaking above the ATH is the recent rate of accumulation from investors. The institutionalization via ETF has caused a massive adoption of BTC. CryptoQuant data shows long-term holders are accumulating 800K BTC per month.
Coinbase stock hitting a new ATH and Circle’s massively successful IPO also add credence that not just crypto but investors are interested in its derivatives as well.
To conclude, the spike in September rate cut odds coupled with bullish technicals and 800K BTC accumulation per day all signal that a new ATH is highly likely for Bitcoin price. As the second quarter comes to a close, investors can expect a bullish and volatile start to the third quarter. Regardless, investors need to be cautious of the geopolitical tensions and their repercussions. The Iran-Israel war could negatively impact Bitcoin price in the short term.
