Bit (BTC) on-chain data shows a rare signal this month: Long-Term Holders (LTH) have net increased by 800,000 coins within 30 days, creating the largest single-month hoarding scale in history. According to Cointelegraph, such a growth rate has only occurred six times in the past decade, each time paving the way for subsequent price increases.
Long-Term Holders Record Increase
CryptoQuant statistics show that in June 2025, LTH net increased by 800,000 coins, with cumulative inventory rising to approximately 15.74 million coins, accounting for 72-73% of circulation. Similar instances occurred five times in 2013, 2017, 2021, 2022, and 2024, with prices rising 90 days later.
Although history does not guarantee the future, the "six wins in six battles" record leads the market to estimate that the short-term supply-demand gap may further expand.
Where is the Technical Support Zone?
According to glassnode's cost distribution model, new LTH entry costs range between $95,000 and $107,000, overlapping with short-term holders' average cost of $98,000-$100,000, forming a double support.
If the price remains stable in the $93,000-$98,000 range, the bull market structure may continue; however, if it breaks below this level, short-term selling and volatility risks will increase.
Triple Contraction on Supply Side
In addition to long-term holders continuing to accumulate, on-chain supply is also squeezed by three synchronized forces:
- Miners have net increased 4,000 coins since April, with inventory rebounding to 65,000 coins, reaching a six-month high.
- Satoshi-era wallets have only released 150 coins in 2025, far below the 10,000 coins in 2024.
- Liquid supply has increased by 470,000 coins since the beginning of the year, but a large amount has been transferred to low-liquidity addresses, further tightening selling pressure.
Future investors can track these three indicators (not investment advice, to be observed with multiple data points):
- Whether LTH monthly increase remains above 500,000 coins.
- Whether the current price can stabilize in the $95-107K cost band.
- Whether Hash Ribbons and LTH/STH ratio continue to maintain a bullish trend.
Technically, if the price can hold above $98,000, the next target may reach $135,000-$160,000; otherwise, be prepared to retest $92,000. However, overall, as long-term holders and miners simultaneously reduce circulating BTC, and the $93K-$107K support remains intact, the bulls still maintain control.
