No interest rate cut in July is almost certain, the market focuses on Bitcoin 109,000 and Ethereum 2,500 US dollars | Hashkey trading time

1. Market Observation

Keywords: ETF, ETH, BTC

The market's focus is on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. Although recent inflation data shows signs of cooling, multiple Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Powell, have stated that more time is needed to observe and confirm that potential price increases from tariffs will not evolve into persistent inflation, thus maintaining a cautious attitude towards rate cuts in the July meeting. Officials generally believe that the current monetary policy is in a good position and there is no need to rush to adjust before the economic prospects become clear, with most views leaning towards considering rate cuts in the fall or later this year. This uncertainty stems from dependence on future data and cautious assessment of external factors like tariffs, while the labor market, though showing signs of slowing, has not yet displayed clear weakness signals, which supports the Federal Reserve's patient waiting. On Thursday, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively rose, with technology and banking stocks leading, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes closing near historical highs. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with 7-year Treasury yields dropping below 4.0%, and the U.S. dollar index falling for the fourth consecutive day, reaching its lowest level in three years. Market expectations of at least two rate cuts this year have strengthened.

In terms of regulation, the Hong Kong government yesterday released the "Hong Kong Digital Asset Development Policy Declaration 2.0". HashKey Group Chairman Xiao Feng believes this marks the entry of Hong Kong's digital assets into a new stage of "institutionalization, scale, and globalization". The policy clearly establishes a stablecoin licensing system by 2025, promotes tokenization of real-world assets, and offers tax incentives for tokenized ETFs and funds to attract international capital. Through its regulatory framework, asset transparency, and tax competitiveness, Hong Kong is becoming a new hub of the global digital economy.

Bitcoin's price recently rebounded nearly 10% from $98,188, but the current upward momentum has slowed. Today marks the largest Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiration this year, with Bitcoin options having a notional value of $15 billion and a maximum pain point at $102,000, while Ethereum options have a notional value of $2.3 billion with a maximum pain point at $2,200, which may intensify short-term volatility. According to Glassnode analysis, Bitcoin's price is currently mainly driven by macro news, with strong support in the $93,000 to $100,000 range, but on-chain transfer volume and spot trading volume are both declining, and futures market caution is rising, indicating a lack of momentum to break new highs before demand recovers. If the price falls below this range, it may trigger a deeper pullback. Trustnodes' analysis also points out that the postponement of Federal Reserve rate cuts is a key reason for Bitcoin's price stagnation.

In this context, many analysts suggest that Bitcoin needs to break through the resistance zone of $108,000 to $110,000 and convert it to support before entering a new price discovery phase and achieving higher targets. CryptoQuant analyst Yonsei Dent states that Bitcoin's Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) momentum is weakening, but this doesn't necessarily mean a downward trend, and could be a signal of a late bull market cycle. The current MVRV ratio is 2.22, below the historical overvaluation range (above 3.7), indicating room for further growth. If MVRV momentum strengthens, coupled with ETF fund inflows, Bitcoin's price might break through the current high of $112,000, potentially reaching over $165,000. Alva emphasizes that a true breakthrough requires high trading volume above $107,500. Additionally, analyst AlphaBTC believes Bitcoin may need significant effort to break the 108-110K level. He suggests Bitcoin might retrace to the 105-104K range near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement line to absorb liquidity accumulated during the recent rise. The market will then observe whether there's enough momentum to push Bitcoin to new highs or if it might face deeper adjustments. He notes: "If the price closes above $109,000 on the four-hour chart, it may welcome a new historical high." Analysts Rekt Capital and MN Capital's founder also state that breaking the resistance at $108,877 and $108,924 is key to Bitcoin's further rise.

Regarding Ethereum, analyst Rekt Capital points out that $2,200 is the macro bottom, and the price needs to effectively return above $2,500 to initiate a stronger rebound. Moreover, with on-chain activity cooling, the recent U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Pult instructed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to accept cryptocurrencies as collateral loan assets, driving a "home buying narrative" on-chain. The associated Meme token $farthouse's market cap rose to $4.3 million before falling back to $2 million.

2. Key Data (as of June 27, 12:00 HKT)

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