Bitcoin is oscillating at high levels, with a short-term downward bias. US stocks are in a short-squeeze situation, but a potential pullback could drag down the crypto market.
- Short attack: Repeatedly blocked near 107,500, can be seen as a short window; 12-hour level has shown a volume-reduced "top" K-line, with neither time nor momentum supporting a breakthrough.
- Long ambush: Consider short-term long if it retraces to 104,600, with the rebound ending if it closes below 106,500 on the 1-hour chart.
- Macro warning: Trump may reimpose tariffs on July 9, with short-term uncertainty still present; if taxes are indeed raised, market sentiment may be hit again.
After the tariff shoe drops, negative factors are basically cleared; expectations of September rate cuts and stablecoin legislation are coming, patiently waiting for opportunities.
New coin trends remain volatile, with SAHARA, NEWT, HOME peaking immediately after listing, while TUT and BANANAS31 plummeted over 50%. Before funds fully recover, altcoins are unlikely to see significant movements, with only a market surge potentially driving catch-up gains. Iranian geopolitical risks continue, remember to control positions to survive.
With the market lacking momentum, "artificial hype" emerges to grab attention. Will this delisting wave trigger another short squeeze?
BSW and ALPHA show different trends after announcements:
- BSW actually rose, with positions around half of circulation, slightly negative premium rate (-0.3%), suggesting market expectations are too strong and more likely to be manipulated;
- ALPHA saw limited gains, current positions only 20% of circulation, not yet meeting short squeeze conditions, but potential opportunities if positions continue to increase while declining.
Overall, their current position sizes are far from the previous Alpaca situation, making a short squeeze premature. With time before official delisting, variables remain. If a short squeeze opportunity exists, it typically appears on the last day. Remember the Alpaca's dramatic drop the night before delisting? That was the best entry point, don't be harvested early.
Now, after today's market analysis, let's continue observing the broader market trends
BTC firmly in control, altcoins suffering - Crypto observations after the "war"
Trump continues to play his face-changing drama, scaring ETH and altcoins, yet BTC remains unmoved, even reclaiming the 108,000 level yesterday.
If the conflict settles, with one less explosive factor, BTC's next target naturally points to 110,000. Having broken the previous record once, returning to 110,000 now faces less resistance than two weeks ago, optimistically by this weekend, conservatively by next week.
The relay baton will now pass to the "tariff war".
July 9 is the final negotiation day for US baseline tariffs, with less than two weeks remaining. Tariff variables are still significant, with any slight movement potentially triggering short-term volatility.
Altcoins quiet, while outside crypto "soars"
While crypto altcoins are mourning, anything labeled with "crypto concept" is causing a stir in the stock market:
- Guotai Junan International's virtual asset license drove its market value to surge, leading Hong Kong brokerage stocks to hit limit up;
- A-share stocks like Xingan Century and Kehuang Information similarly benefited;
- Circle in the US stock market slightly pulled back, while other "crypto stocks" simultaneously took off.
Some joke: "Top project teams' ultimate dream is still to ring the NASDAQ bell." Previously, issuing coins was a last resort, but with friendlier policies, capital naturally flows to higher-level traditional capital markets. Perhaps this round's true primary market dividend isn't in the chain, but in the stock market - don't just focus on coins, go where the money is.
Finally, let's discuss personal strategy
- BTC / ETH regular investment or low leverage: After removing the "war mine," BTC breaking 110,000 has high probability, keep position light for maneuverability.
- Be selective with altcoins: Small positions in quality MEME or public chain leaders, avoid bad projects.
- Watch the tariff timeline: Potential black swan events around July 9, set stop-loss carefully.
- Track crypto concept stocks: Traditional market funds might be the next wealth creation ground.
War paused, tariffs pending, capital shifting tracks - this is the current market pulse. The market won't wait, rhythm control is the key to success.
Wish everyone maintains a stable mindset in turbulence, don't let market drama drive your wallet on a roller coaster.
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