- Technical indicators show BTC's short-term trend is strong, with MACD and Bollinger Bands supporting further upside potential.
- Market sentiment is driven by geopolitical factors, institutional product expansion, and ETF expectations, but legislative differences and volatility risks remain.
- After breaking through the key resistance level of 110,166 USDT, the target price could reach up to $120,000, and if momentum continues long-term, $200,000 is not impossible.
BTC Price Prediction
BTC Technical Analysis: Current Trend and Future Outlook
According to BTCC financial analyst James's technical analysis, BTC's current price is 107,330.74 USDT, above the 20-day moving average of 105,675.7715, indicating a strong short-term trend. The MACD indicator shows positive momentum, with a current value of 1,875.5294, higher than the signal line of 977.0654, and a histogram of 898.4640, demonstrating continued buying momentum. The Bollinger Bands show the price is near the upper band of 110,166.6955, and breaking through could lead to further increases, with the middle band of 105,675.7715 serving as short-term support and the lower band of 101,184.8475 as a key defensive level.
Market Sentiment and News Impact: BTC Price Driving Factors
BTCC financial analyst James points out that recent news indicates an optimistic market sentiment. Easing geopolitical tensions are driving Bitcoin's target price to $120,000, and hints of potential SEC approval of spot ETFs further boost market confidence. Although Barclays has banned crypto trading due to volatility risks, praise from BlackRock executives and institutional product expansion (such as Moscow Exchange's Bitcoin futures) show strong long-term demand. However, bipartisan differences in crypto legislation and market volatility remain potential risks.
Factors Affecting BTC Price
Bitcoin Targets $120,000 After Geopolitical Tensions Ease
Bitcoin's resilience during geopolitical turmoil has strengthened its role as a risk asset. After falling below $100,000 during the Israel-Iran conflict, BTC quickly rebounded above $106,000 following the ceasefire confirmation. This recovery pattern aligns with historical trends - when prices return above the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), they typically see a 10-20% surge.
Crypto Quant data shows three consecutive days of closing above this key moving average, suggesting a potential push to $120,000. The technical structure is more robust than in previous cycles, but analysts caution that Middle Eastern tensions remain a variable. Market participants are observing whether institutional funds can sustain momentum beyond retail speculation.
Senator Lummis Faces Bipartisan Challenges in Crypto Legislation
Senator Cynthia Lummis has set an ambitious timeline for two key crypto bills - the CLARITY Act and the GENIUS Act - to pass by 2026. At the Bitcoin Policy Summit in Washington D.C., Lummis emphasized the need for regulatory clarity on stablecoins and market structure, expressing confidence in the bills' progress despite political obstacles.
The CLARITY Act, focused on digital asset market clarification, is about to undergo a full chamber vote, while the GENIUS Act has been submitted for review. Bipartisan support remains challenging, with some Democrats demanding clear handling of former President Donald Trump's crypto involvement. These bills also aim to limit profits from stablecoins for congressional members and their families.
Moscow Exchange Expands Crypto Product Line with Bitcoin Futures, Funds, and Structured Bonds
The Moscow Exchange is accelerating its crypto derivatives listing plans, introducing Bitcoin index futures linked to a proprietary index, along with new crypto funds and structured bond products. Exchange manager Vladimir Krekoten confirmed the new BTC futures contract is imminent, continuing the momentum from the successful launch of ruble-settled Bitcoin futures linked to BlackRock's IBIT ETF on June 4th.
Market demand is driving the exchange to expedite more crypto products. Krekoten told RBC Investments, "We are preparing crypto index and ETF futures," emphasizing regulatory considerations for customer access. As Bitcoin derivatives gain global market attention, this move indicates Russia's capital markets are increasingly institutionally accepting of crypto assets.
SEC Commissioner Hints at Imminent Approval of Crypto ETF Physical Redemption
SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce suggested a breakthrough for crypto exchange-traded funds, indicating that physical redemption mechanisms may soon receive regulatory approval. These remarks came during a panel discussion at the Bitcoin Policy Institute, with Peirce acknowledging growing market demand for physically-backed crypto ETF structures.
Peirce stated, "These applications are progressing through our approval process," without providing a specific timeline. Market participants interpreted her "very soon" comments as recognition of increasing institutional investor interest in crypto investment tools. This development could eliminate a key barrier to mainstream digital asset ETF adoption.
Quantitative Analyst Refutes Global M2 as Bitcoin Price Prediction Indicator
21st Capital hedge fund co-founder Sina publicly criticized a widely-cited Bitcoin price model that links crypto trends to global M2 money supply data. The model, promoted by Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal, claims that M2 indicators 10-12 weeks in advance can predict BTC price movements - which Sina called a "typical case of data illiteracy".
The data scientist demonstrated in a June 24th X platform video lecture how arbitrary time shifts can create false correlations. "If I'm allowed to manipulate data and move content arbitrarily, I can absolutely find a perfect match in data fragments," Sina emphasized, noting such an approach would not pass peer review in academic settings.
Barclays Bans Cryptocurrency Transactions, Citing Volatility Risks, While Maintaining Bitcoin ETF Investment
Barclays PLC will prohibit all cryptocurrency transactions via its bank cards starting June 27, 2025. The British banking giant cited price volatility and lack of regulatory protection as primary concerns, warning that crypto assets are not protected by Financial Ombudsman Services or Financial Services Compensation Program.
This policy shift occurs as Barclays heavily invests in BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT). SEC documents show the bank held 2.47 million IBIT shares valued at $137 million in February 2024, indicating institutional interest in regulated crypto products despite limited retail investor participation.
IBIT continues strong performance, trading at $60.98, up 1.5% intraday. This divergence highlights the increasing institutionalization of cryptocurrency through ETFs, while traditional banks remain cautious about consumer exposure to highly volatile digital assets.
Fuzzland Accuses Former Employee of $2 Million UniBTC Vulnerability Exploit
Fuzzland has confirmed a former employee as the mastermind behind the $2 million vulnerability exploit in the Bedrock UNI BTC protocol. The individual allegedly used internal privileges and malware to execute the attack, highlighting ongoing security vulnerabilities in decentralized finance.
Internal threats remain a critical challenge for crypto projects, especially those managing cross-chain assets. The incident emphasizes the need for strict access controls and monitoring systems, even as the industry addresses external threats.
Bitcoin Reaches $106,000 - Analyzing Catalysts Driving Steady BTC Appreciation
Since mid-June, Bitcoin has shown remarkable resilience, firmly establishing itself above the $100,000 mark. This rebound resonates with rising Relative Strength Index (RSI) and strong Fibonacci support levels, indicating deeper market confidence in the recovery.
Over $240 million in BTC has flowed out of exchanges, clearly showing the market is in an accumulation rather than panic phase. Miner behavior has also significantly changed - when price stabilizes above $100,000, BTC.com's miner-to-exchange flow indicator drops to a yearly low, traditionally a reliable holding signal. Bitcoin is currently priced at $106,654, with miner confidence and whale accumulation creating a bullish backdrop.
Derivatives platforms' open interest surged 4.07% to $3.397 billion in 24 hours, suggesting traders are positioning for a significant breakthrough. Neutral funding rates and lack of extreme price volatility indicate the market is gathering momentum, with long-term holders potentially laying groundwork for Bitcoin's next macro-level surge.
Bitcoin Briefly Surpasses $108,000 as Trump's Geopolitical Remarks Trigger Market Volatility
Bitcoin spiked 2.8%, touching $108,000 before retreating to $107,600, reacting to geopolitical developments. This movement triggered $210 million in derivative platform liquidations.
Price volatility coincided with former US President Trump's comments about Middle Eastern tensions. Trump stated that "Iran has a huge advantage" and does not expect nuclear agreement negotiations to resume. The former president also mentioned Ukraine negotiations and plans to dialogue with Iranian leadership.
Bitcoin Traders Focus on Key Levels as Geopolitical Volatility Increases Market Uncertainty
As geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran escalate cryptocurrency market volatility, Bitcoin price trends become traders' focus. Greeks.live analysts highlight two critical thresholds: $104,800 as an upward anomaly point and $108,000 as a psychological comfort zone.
Market sentiment diverges after volatile price movements triggered by ceasefire reports. Some traders anticipate further decline, while others interpret recent volatility as a consolidation phase before a new bull market momentum.
BlackRock Executive Highly Praises Bitcoin as Global Decentralized Asset
A BlackRock executive publicly endorsed Bitcoin as a transformative asset class. Key figure Mitch Mitchnick emphasized Bitcoin's unique attributes: "It's global, scarce, non-sovereign, and decentralized," highlighting its independence from any single country's monetary policy.
Endorsement from the world's largest asset management company marks growing institutional acceptance of cryptocurrency. Bitcoin's design as a borderless value storage tool continues to attract traditional financial leaders seeking alternatives to conventional systems.
Will BTC Price Reach $200,000?
Combining technical and fundamental analysis, BTCC analyst James believes BTC has potential to rise to $200,000, but key conditions must be monitored.
