Original Title: A False Start on the Road to an All-American Bitcoin
Original Author: Joel, Khalili, Wired
Original Translation: AididiaoJP, Foresight News
Trump's Bitcoin Mining Ambitions
Trump once promised to transform the United States into the global capital of Bitcoin mining. However, recent comprehensive tariff policies have placed this ambition in a dilemma.
U.S. President Trump paused briefly, enjoying the enthusiastic applause from the audience. At the cryptocurrency conference "Bitcoin 2024", facing a group of passionate Bitcoin believers, he outlined his plan to make the United States a Bitcoin mining superpower.
"I want Bitcoin to be mined, minted, and produced in the United States," he told the audience, "You will be very satisfied with me—you'll be extremely happy."
Since returning to the White House, Trump has largely fulfilled his campaign promises: he began establishing a national Bitcoin reserve, replaced the most stringent regulatory heads against crypto companies from the previous administration, and appointed a "crypto czar" to establish clear regulatory rules for the industry. However, in the critical field of Bitcoin mining, the U.S. President's approach has been contradictory, supporting domestic mining companies on one hand while increasing industry operational costs through tariff policies on the other.
The Duality of Tariff Policies
On April 2, Trump announced punitive new tariffs on 57 countries, including tariffs on Chinese goods (later adjusted to 55%), and tariffs of 24% to 36% on Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia (where Chinese companies produce some mining machines). This policy challenges U.S. mining companies relying on Chinese suppliers, including Trump's family's newly established mining company "American Bitcoin", facing soaring hardware costs.
However, these tariffs also bring a glimmer of hope: they might support small domestic U.S. mining machine manufacturers, as U.S.-made mining machines are not affected by the new import tariffs.
Whether U.S. hardware manufacturers can truly seize this opportunity largely depends on their potential customers and whether U.S. mining companies can withstand the economic impact of the tariff policies.
To ensure supply chain stability, mining companies typically sign long-term procurement agreements with hardware manufacturers. Now, these companies must face a tricky problem: they might need to pay high tariffs on Chinese mining machine orders not yet delivered.
Facing cost pressures, many U.S. mining companies have begun adjusting their business directions, turning to artificial intelligence (AI) and other data center businesses to seek more stable profit sources. This trend risks the "Bitcoin superpower" vision—U.S. companies mining using U.S.-manufactured machines on U.S. soil—failing at the starting line.
"If things continue this way, mining businesses will continue to be squeezed out of the United States," said Chris Bendiksen, Bitcoin research head at investment firm CoinShares, "We may have already witnessed the peak of U.S. mining."
White House spokesperson Kush Desai rejected the notion in a statement to WIRED magazine that tariffs might undermine Trump's Bitcoin mining ambitions.
"Two things can be done simultaneously," he said, "We can promote hardware manufacturing localization through tariff policies while using energy policies to reduce Bitcoin mining companies' operational costs."
The Hardware Arms Race in Bitcoin Mining
Bitcoin mining is essentially a hardware arms race. Mining companies must continuously upgrade equipment to ensure their computing power is sufficient to defeat competitors and win the right to process transaction blocks and receive Bitcoin rewards.
In this field, two Chinese manufacturers, Bitmain and MicroBT, almost monopolize the global market. The Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance (CCA) estimates that these two companies collectively control 97% of the mining machine market share.
Despite numerous challengers attempting to break this duopoly in recent years, none have achieved breakthroughs in hardware performance or production costs. "The path is littered with the bodies of failures," Bendiksen commented.
The new tariff policies force many U.S. mining companies dependent on Chinese mining machines to re-examine their supply chain strategies and seek alternatives.
Analysts believe that Auradine, a mining machine manufacturer based in Santa Clara, might be one of the biggest beneficiaries. The company, established three years ago, has struggled to challenge Bitmain and MicroBT's market position. However, since Trump announced the new tariffs, Auradine has seen an unprecedented surge in customer inquiries.
"We've seen unprecedented market interest," said Rajiv Khemani, Auradine's co-founder and CEO, "Miners want to ensure they can hedge tariff risks under any policy environment."
To seize this opportunity, Auradine recently launched a new generation of Bitcoin mining machine product lines and raised $153 million in Series C funding. Khemani revealed that the company is about to announce a batch of high-profile clients signed after the tariff policies.
MARA Holdings' Strategy
One of Auradine's star clients is MARA Holdings, a U.S.-listed mining company that not only participated in Auradine's creation but also holds $85.4 million in company stock.
MARA CEO Fred Thiel stated that while Auradine's mining machines currently occupy a small portion of the company's operational equipment, they will account for about 50% of new orders in 2025.
"In an environment with geopolitical and tariff risks, if U.S.-made mining machines are priced the same as Chinese-made ones, which would you choose? The answer is obvious," Thiel said, "If the U.S. government suddenly bans imported Chinese mining machines one day, and you've already paid a $300 million order deposit, you'll be in an extremely passive position."
However, whether Auradine can truly benefit from the tariff policies still depends on U.S. mining companies' ability to withstand the impact on their existing orders.
The current timing could not be worse for mining companies. Although rising Bitcoin prices have brought some profit margins, factors like intensifying industry competition, declining transaction fees, and reduced Bitcoin block rewards have significantly compressed mining companies' profit rates.
Meanwhile, mining companies also face fierce competition from AI companies, which, with abundant funding, are seizing the United States' limited energy resources. The latest prediction from the U.S. Department of Energy shows that AI industry electricity consumption might reach 22% of total U.S. household electricity usage by 2028.
Bitcoin mining companies operating in the United States, including Riot Platforms, Bitfarms, MARA, CoreWeave, Core Scientific, Hut 8, and Iris Energy, have sought diversification, exiting the mining market and transforming their facilities to accommodate AI training and high-performance computing. Only a few large companies (like CleanSpark) remain focused on Bitcoin mining.
"Miners have always been savvy electricity buyers, like vultures on the grid," Bendiksen described, "But now, AI companies are willing to pay higher electricity prices, further squeezing miners' survival space."
MARA's CEO Thiel believes that tariff increases alone are insufficient to drive Bitcoin miners out of the United States. Compared to energy costs, hardware import tariffs have a relatively small impact on mining companies' overall operational costs.
However, in an already challenging market environment, the cumulative effect of tariff policies undoubtedly exacerbates the industry's difficulties.
"Typically, such an impact would lead to industry consolidation," analyzed Thiemo Fetzer, an economics professor at the University of Warwick, "We will likely see small miners being eliminated because increased equipment costs and supply chain uncertainties make their survival more difficult."
Global Deployment of Mining Companies
Facing challenges in the U.S. market, many mining companies have begun expanding their businesses overseas to mitigate tariff risks.
"Why do we develop international business? Because it can reduce single policy risks," and "As a Bitcoin miner, you must remain flexible."
Meanwhile, Chinese mining machine manufacturers and MicroBT are also accelerating their layout of local production in the United States to bypass tariff barriers.
"We are actively investing in the US market, including local manufacturing," said Irene Gao, President of 's mining business.
Currently, Bitcoin mining companies are generally in a wait-and-see state. Before the 90-day suspension of Trump's new tariffs ends in July, its ultimate impact remains unclear, and many companies have therefore postponed hardware procurement decisions.
"Everyone is waiting to see how the tariff policy will ultimately be implemented," Hermani said.
The Contradictory Nature of Trump's Policy
On the surface, Trump's tariff policy seems to be at odds with his ambition to promote the US Bitcoin mining industry.
"These tariffs are obviously destructive," Bendiksen said bluntly.
To simultaneously achieve two goals - supporting US mining machine manufacturers and ensuring the survival of mining companies in the US - the Trump administration may need to use other policy tools, such as promoting energy infrastructure construction to reduce electricity costs for mining companies.
The White House claims that a series of recent executive orders will help lower US energy prices. However, the reality is that many mining companies are still reducing their domestic operations and turning to AI or other fields.
"Trump's promise of 'All-American Bitcoin' currently seems to be just empty talk," Bendiksen concluded, "This is more about catering to nationalist sentiment rather than a real industrial policy."
