In this "only rising" stablecoin boom, Circle's valuation continues to refresh market expectations.
CRCL closed up 9.64% on Tuesday at $263.45, with its market cap first exceeding USDC's total market cap, reaching $63.89 billion, a 749% surge from its IPO price. This rare phenomenon of "stablecoin parent company > stablecoin itself" is becoming a landmark node in the integration of crypto and traditional capital markets.
Meanwhile, institutions have begun to cash out profits. According to Ark Invest Daily data, ARK Invest, led by Cathie Wood, sold 415,844 shares of CRCL on June 23, with a total value of approximately $109.5 million at that day's closing price.
Despite the selling signal releasing some calm, with short channels nearly exhausted and option prices lacking cost-effectiveness, the market remains in an overwhelmingly bullish frenzy.
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Some view Circle's listing as a potential bull market top signal, similar to how Coinbase's IPO day coincided with the peak of Bitcoin's previous bull market. However, others argue: "The bubble this time is far less intense, Altcoins have been severely washed out, and BTC.D remains at high levels."
More critically, CRCL is a traditional IPO with a 180-day internal lock-up period, limiting short-term selling pressure, unlike $COIN's direct insider cash-out. Many hedge funds were unable to enter on CRCL's first listing day and could only "chase high" in the secondary market. Some short sellers are also enduring extremely high annualized funding rates (over 5%), making it difficult to exert substantial pressure.
As Arthur Hayes said: "Should you short Circle? Absolutely not. You can choose not to buy, but don't short. Emotional premium is the most terrifying accelerating energy."
Perhaps Circle's market value isn't worth believing in right now. But what it represents—a stablecoin platform supported by BlackRock, Fidelity, Visa, Coinbase, and others—has crossed the compliance red line and entered the mainstream US stock market. Its valuation doesn't come from crypto consensus, but from the stock market's re-pricing of a "compliant financial technology platform".
Hayes believes Circle is severely overvalued, but prices will continue to rise because this listing marks the beginning, not the end, of this stablecoin frenzy.
Related reading: 《Arthur Hayes: Stablecoin IPO is a "Dead End", But I Advise Against Shorting》
At a time when traditional payment giants have not yet massively entered, USDT is unlikely to IPO, and USD1 is still under policy observation, Circle might be the sole carrier of this narrative. "There's no real future because distribution channels for new entrants are closed. Shove this idea into your fool's brain, trade this pile of shit like a hot potato. But don't short, these new stocks will make shorts lose everything."
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