#BTC False breakdown and rebound, trap or reversal?
Key points first: Bitcoin quickly pulled back after breaking through the neckline in this round of decline, forming a typical "false breakdown", with a trend identical to the attack after falsely breaking 90,000 in January this year. We specially reminded of this possibility yesterday, and unexpectedly, the geopolitical situation suddenly changed, with the Iran-Iraq war abruptly stopping, bringing good news faster than expected. With the good news landing, Bitcoin rebounded to 106,000 as predicted, though sudden, the logic is clear - short positions around 103,000 were just in place and directly pushed back above 100,000.
Drawing from the January experience, false breakdowns often lead to stronger market performance, and this time may continue to surge. If it rises to around 110,000 and forms a Double Top structure, it will be an excellent medium to long-term short point, with the first target around 93,000.
Currently, Bitcoin shows clear signs of topping, with altcoins starting to callback, many already halved. However, the crypto market's decline is never instantaneous, always accompanied by rebounds and repeated oscillations. My medium-term judgment on BTC remains unchanged: the true bottom may not be seen until July or August. Slow down the pace and observe. The market is not over, let's proceed steadily. Meanwhile, altcoins are experiencing a collective rebound, but the overall market remains fragile, affected by geopolitical and policy factors, and may reverse at any time. The "wolf is coming" rehearsal continues, and the true main rising stage has not yet arrived.
It's worth noting that public chain coin $S has been performing strongly recently and is about to be listed on Coinbase, so its subsequent developments are worth continuous attention.
PEPE
#PEPE is currently within a daily downward channel, rebounding from the trend line support, showing initial signs of recovery. The current trend is moving towards the channel's midline, and if it can successfully stabilize and maintain the midline, it may bring new long opportunities when retracing. In the short term, $PEPE remains on the observation list, awaiting confirmation signals.
CGPT
#CGPT successfully broke through the descending wedge on the 4-hour chart, with a reasonable trend and strong trading volume, confirming the effectiveness of this breakthrough. Short-term traders can seize this opportunity, but a more prudent strategy is to enter when it pulls back to support after the breakthrough. Waiting for $CGPT to fall back and hold support will provide a high-probability entry point.
FLOKI
#FLOKI's daily trend is bearish, with a typical head and shoulders top formation already established and having broken through the neckline support. Currently lacking clear rebound signs, the overall trend remains weak. As long as the price stays below the neckline, the bearish pattern will continue. If bulls fail to take over in time, it will likely continue to explore lower in the short term. There are no obvious long-term supports, so patiently wait for a deeper callback before considering entry.
Next, let me briefly explain how to play the MEME market?
Remember these two opportunities: Emotional hotspots (like $GOR, $USELESS, Squirrel) and application narratives (like AI, RWA).
Few RWA projects, COLLAT is the only one that has made an impact; the AI direction is stronger, with DUPE, KLED, KNET, BOTIFY performing brilliantly, with KLED already doubling. Recommend keeping a close eye on new AI MEME tokens, as long as they can kill valuations with BTC, the space is large. Even if it doesn't drop, expectations exist, just with reduced elasticity.
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