War hurts me, ceasefire does not save me. Who can I reason with in my devastated wallet?
Written by: Bright, Foresight News
On the morning of June 24th, as Trump announced that Iran fully agrees to a comprehensive ceasefire, the cryptocurrency secondary market rebounded after last night's war escalation avoidance. BTC briefly fell below $100,000 before rising and breaking through the $106,000 mark, with many Altcoins taking the opportunity to recover. Affected by the Middle East situation, BTC has been continuously adjusting for nearly a week, reaching a low of $98,200 yesterday, and quickly rising to $106,075 today, with a gain of over 8.02%.
However, the latest news shows that Iran denies reaching a substantive ceasefire agreement, and as of the time of writing, Bitcoin is temporarily reported around $105,000.
ETH showed relatively weak performance after a wide-range decline and has not yet returned to the previous $2,500 platform. ETH rose from yesterday's bottom of $2,111 to break through to $2,440, up over 15.58%. SOL's rebound was relatively strong, rising from yesterday's low of $121 to $147, a 21.48% increase, but may have been sold off by large investors due to a cold on-chain market. SOL is still far from this round's high of $187.71.
The total cryptocurrency market value has rebounded by over 6% from its low point, rising to $33 trillion. With the release of risk-averse sentiment and collective Altcoin recovery, Bitcoin's market dominance slightly decreased from its high to 63.49%, but the Altcoin season index remains low at 14, and the fear and greed index has fallen to 37, representing fear. During the same period, US stocks closed slightly higher. The S&P 500 rose 0.96% to 6,025.17 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.89% to 42,581.78 points. The Nasdaq rose 0.94% to 19,630.98 points. Among US crypto stocks, Circle hit new highs, breaking through $298.41 intraday, rising over 9.62 times from its $31 issue price, closing at $263.45. Coinbase slightly declined 0.26%, stabilizing around $300, closing at $307.59. MicroStrategy continued to decline slightly, down 0.68%, closing at $367.18.
Regarding liquidation data, according to Coinglass, over 135,600 people were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with a total liquidation amount of $495 million, including $380 million in short liquidations and $115 million in long liquidations, mainly short liquidations. The largest single liquidation on CEX was ETH-USDT on Binance, valued at $12.1423 million.
Recently, the trend of Bitcoin and other risk assets has been closely related to the Iran conflict. The "thunder and little rain" drama between Iran and the US last night indeed affected market risk aversion. Later, the lack of substantial damage to US military bases and Iran's relatively "weak" retaliation led to a slight recovery in risk assets. This morning, Israel, Iran, and the US jointly confirmed a comprehensive ceasefire agreement, temporarily drawing a pause to geopolitical uncertainties in the Gulf region and triggering a continued recovery of Bitcoin and other risk assets. However, Iran's latest statement has again planted seeds of doubt in the brief "peace".
A Tense Night in the Gulf
Iran: Launched "Destructive and Powerful" Missiles at Qatar US Military Base
On the evening of June 23rd (local time), early morning of June 24th (Beijing time), Iranian media reported that Iran announced missile attacks on US bases in Iraq and Qatar. Simultaneously, explosions were heard in Doha, the capital of Qatar, with US media reporting that Iran launched multiple missiles at the US military base in Qatar.
The Al Udeid Air Base, located about 35 kilometers southwest of Doha, is the most modernized US military base in the Gulf region and one of the largest US overseas military bases, with over 10,000 US soldiers deployed.
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Subsequently, the Iranian Armed Forces issued a statement announcing missile strikes on the US military's Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. The statement claimed this action was a response to US attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, approved by Iran's Supreme National Security Council and executed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The statement said Iran's armed forces launched "destructive and powerful" missiles at the US military's Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar.
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At the same time, the Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council released a statement saying that in response to US aggression against Iranian nuclear facilities, Iranian armed forces launched a fierce attack on the US military's Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar that night. The number of missiles was the same as the bombs used by the US in attacking Iranian nuclear facilities, and the targeted US military base was far from Qatar's residential areas and urban infrastructure. The statement emphasized that this action would not threaten Iran's friendly country Qatar, and Iran remains committed to maintaining long-term friendly relations with Qatar.
Qatar: Successfully Intercepted 19 Missile Attacks on Al Udeid Air Base, No Personnel Casualties
After Iran confirmed missile strikes on the US base in Qatar on the 23rd, Qatar's Ministry of Defense issued a statement confirming that Qatar's air defense system successfully intercepted 19 missile attacks on the Al Udeid Air Base, with no personnel casualties.
Qatar also stated that the Al Udeid Air Base had been fully evacuated before the Iranian attack.
US: Trump Enters White House Situation Room, Says No Desire for More Military Intervention in Middle East
On Monday US Eastern Time during the US stock market midday session, US government officials said Trump met with the Secretary of Defense and Joint Chiefs of Staff members in the White House Situation Room. Two informed officials revealed that the US was tracking multiple missiles launched by Iran at US military facilities in Qatar and Iraq.
The US stated that Iran's attack on the Qatar US military base caused no personnel casualties and that "no record of Iran attacking US bases in other countries besides Qatar" was found.
Subsequently, White House officials reported that Trump does not want further US military intervention in the Middle East.
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A Peace Already Agreed Upon?
Trump: No US Personnel Injured by Iranian Attack, Perhaps Iran Can Begin Achieving Peace
Before the close of US stocks on Monday, Trump posted on his social media platform Truth Social, saying Iran's response to the US destruction of its nuclear facilities was "very weak" and to "thank Iran for notifying the US in advance".
According to CCTV News, Trump on his social platform said, "Iran's formal response to the US destroying its nuclear facilities was very weak, which was expected in the US." Trump said, "Iran launched 14 missiles, 13 of which were shot down, and one flew in a non-threatening direction. No Americans were injured, and almost no damage was caused."
At the same time, Trump's post said that because of Iran's advance notification, no US personnel were injured. Since Iran has responded to the attack on its nuclear facilities, he "hopes there will be no more hatred." He also said: "Perhaps Iran can now begin to achieve peace and harmony in the region, and I will enthusiastically encourage Israel to do the same."
Trump: Israel and Iran Agree to a Comprehensive Ceasefire Agreement
US President Trump announced that Israel and Iran have agreed to a comprehensive ceasefire agreement aimed at ending a 12-day military conflict that severely impacted the Middle East geopolitical landscape and triggered global market turbulence. According to reports, Iranian senior officials confirmed that Tehran has agreed to a US-proposed ceasefire with Israel, mediated by Qatar.
However, it is reported that on the 24th local time, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu requested cabinet members not to comment on recent developments, specifically "Trump's announcement of a comprehensive ceasefire between Israel and Iran", until further notice. The latest news is that the Iranian Foreign Minister stated that Israel and Iran have not yet reached any "agreement" on ceasefire or stopping military operations, but are willing to stop at this point.
Federal Reserve's Dovish Tone Reappears
Federal Reserve Governor Bowman voiced support for a potential rate cut as early as July. Bowman noted that data shows tariffs and other policies have not yet had a significant impact on the economy. The impact of tariffs on inflation may be more delayed and smaller than initially expected, especially since many companies have already stockpiled inventory. Ongoing progress in trade and tariff negotiations has significantly reduced economic risk. Changes in trade policy may have only a minimal impact on the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator. In contrast, risks in the labor market may be increasing.
Chicago Fed President Goolsbee stated that there has been a lack of obvious inflationary pressure since Trump imposed tariffs on April 2, which might enable the Federal Reserve to cut rates again. He recalled that the Federal Reserve initially expected to lower interest rates at the beginning of the year and paused rate cuts mainly due to policy uncertainty.
Currently, Bitcoin has significantly rebounded after a brief dip, moving away from the dangerous platform of $97,000. Trader Eugene wrote that BTC successfully defended the $100,000 mark, and he expects this to be the peak of panic caused by the Middle East situation. BTC price is currently maintained in the range of $100,000 to $110,000, and if the market gradually diminishes the impact of geopolitical conflicts, it may challenge the upper limit of this range.
